UAAP 71st Season: a 'Fearful' forecast

MANILA, Philippines - With only a couple of days left, the anticipation for the University Athletic Association of the Philippines games has hit fever pitch. Alumni, students, parents, faculty and staff have all but waited around nine months for a new serving of the finest collegiate basketball competition in the land. This season promises to be tighter than anything in recent memory, what with around seven teams having legitimate chances of bagging a Final Four slot, and maybe even beyond. The University of the East Red Warriors and Ateneo Blue Eagles are entering the fray armed with separate preseason crowns, but we all know those don’t matter when the curtain rises for another UAAP season. As defending champs, the De La Salle Green Archers are poised for another magnificent run through the 14 elimination-round games, but they will be walking, talking targets as the rest of the pack scrambles to wrest the title from Taft. Much hype has gone into this season, and the teams will surely provide us with the kind of drama that only collegiate hoops can bring. Let’s begin this preview in reverse order of the teams’ finish last season. University of the Philippines (0-14, 8th place) The Fighting Maroons of coach Aboy Castro have nowhere to go but up. Armed with a core of hungry players, and the motivation of their Centennial celebration, these guys are ready to show up this season. People haven’t forgotten their winless performance last year, and have used this to dismiss this squad as this generation’s version of last generation’s NU. However, the UAAP has a way of turning the tables on unsuspecting individuals. Pure talent runs through the veins of UP’s cagers, and they just might upend everybody’s gloomy outlook for their team. Woody Co, Jay Agbayani and Magi Sison should be serviceable frontliners to compliment their gunners in Martin Reyes and Migs De Asis. Arvin Braganza and Mike Gamboa will split the court generalship chores, while Mark Lopez and Paul Sorongon should prove to be competitive swingmen. Getting a single win would be a significant improvement, a couple more would be welcome, at least four or five will be momentous, and actually scraping a Final Four berth will be nothing short of a miracle. Coach Castro has his work cut out for him, but I’m pretty sure his wards will go forth guns blazing. Forecast: 8th place again Adamson (2-12, 7th place) The Falcons have several reasons to smile. Coach Leo Austria is back to try and steer this team to the Final Four, as he did a couple of seasons ago. They showed some surprising prowess by having a respectable pre-season campaign, highlighted by an upset win over the Green Archers. Patrick Cabahug is gone, and rumor has it that Jojo Hate might play again. Looking at this team’s line-up, one can’t be faulted for not expecting much. After all, their top two players from last year have moved on and nobody is tagged to make up for the sheer number of attempts Cabahug and Roel Hugnatan took. Coach Austria might have to dig deep to be competitive, but young guns like Jerick Canada, Paul Gonzalgo, Mike Galinato, and the ever-unpredictable Mark Agustin will provide tons of excitement, if not anxiety. The San Marcelino-based faithful should not expect for much, but given the return of the only coach to lead them to a semifinal slot in the last gazillion years, the Falcons just might soar once again. Forecast: 7th place again National U (6-8, 6th place) The Bulldogs of Coach Manny Dandan were right in the thick of the Final Four wars last season, and actually affected the semifinal landscape despite not being a part of it. By upsetting the Blue Eagles in their last game, the Bulldogs left their stamp on the hearts and minds of the Ateneans. Ateneo could never really recover. This season though, NU is shooting for more than being post-season spoilers. They have a legitimate 1-2 punch in Edwin Asoro and Jonathan Jahnke, with both players possessing outstanding basketball talent. I’d go as far as to say that both can be counted in the Top 10 players for this coming season. Asoro’s Jamison-ish game, and Jahnke’s no-nonsense style fit the Bulldogs’ ala-Ginebra game plan perfectly. The Bulldogs will need more consistency, and a decent amount of luck, but the whipping boys of the 90s have come to play for Season 71. At least this year, their bite might just be as good, or even better, than their bark. Forecast: 6th place again Far Eastern U (8-6, 5th place – lost to UST in a playoff) The Tamaraws’ fortunes are about to change. After two seasons of almost making the cut, Coach Glenn Capacio’s horned heroes are bound for greater strides in Season 71. They competed well in the pre-season, and have secured a lot of holdovers from last year. This makes their core one of the most, if not THE most, solid one in the whole lot. Like their neighbors from España, FEU has always been known to employ the long-lanky-shooter player prototype. Marlon Adolfo, Mac Baracael, JR Cawaling, Paul Sanga, Rey Cervantes, and rookie sensation Robert Kave all fall into this Arwind Santos mold. They will definitely cause match-up problems for all their opponents, and will induce severe headaches to opposing coaches. Probably the most glaring weakness for Coach Capacio’s bunch will be in the backcourt, where Benedict Fernandez is expected to share time with Jens Knuttel and Marc Barroca. A decent dose of pressure defense just might give the Tamaraws lots of trouble, and cause unforced errors. FEU might have encountered difficulty in getting over the proverbial hump, but this season just might see them through. Forecast: 4th place University of Santo Tomas (8-6, 4th place – lost to Ateneo in stepladder semifinals) After shocking everybody in 2006, they went out with a purr in 2007. Despite having, arguably, the most talented line-up last year, the Growling Tigers managed a “paltry" 4th-place finish. They even had to fight through a playoff just to get there. Now with several key pieces gone, like Anthony Espiritu, June Dizon and Jun Cortez, they might find this season a little tougher than the last. If you have a guy like Jervy Cruz, you’re in good shape. Add Dylan Ababou, Khasim Mirza, Francis Allera, and Mark Canlas and you have a team built to fight for the crown. So why didn’t they do as well as people had hoped for in Season 70? It’d be easy to blame Coach Pido Jarencio’s out-of-the-box bench technique or Japs Cuan’s baffling shooting hand, but something more profound was missing. A bit of the magic that carried them through in the previous year dissipated, and that saw the big cats crawl back into near-obscurity. España’s pride has been quiet of late, choosing to play the “element of surprise" card, but because their core is still intact, everyone knows how to play them—and beat them. Black-White, Black-Gold will still be a tough nut to crack, but they WILL get cracked. Forecast: 5th place Ateneo de Manila (9-5, 3rd place – lost to DLSU in the stepladder semifinals) Near-misses. That is the theme for Coach Norman Black’s Blue Eagles. Losing in the 2006 Finals. Losing to NU in last year’s last regular playdate. Losing to DLSU in the stepladder. Nothing but a wellspring of might-have-been’s is the result of the past few campaigns. This, more than ever, could be the year they break the jinx. After getting a much-ballyhooed rookie class, everybody has tagged Ateneo as a legit title contender. With a core relatively solid behind veterans Chris Tiu, Jai Reyes, Eric Salamat, Rabeh Al-Hussaini and Yuri Escueta, the Eagles seem ready to make another run at the championship. Towing along super sophs Nonoy Baclao and Kirk Long simply adds more strength to their line-up. And, of course, the entry of man-child Ryan Buenafe spices things up even more. Big names all, and big games too, but will they all show up when it counts? Black’s crew is notorious for its erratic gameplay. It’s not surprising to see Ateneo dismantle a league leader one day only to falter against lightweights in the next. The flight of these Eagles has always been, and will continue to be, enigmatic. However, they will still make the Final Four, and, as my bias enters here, play for the championship. Forecast: 2nd place University of the East (14-0, 2nd place – lost to DLSU in the Finals) Tragedy is the only word apt to describe the Warriors’ defeat at the hands of De La Salle last year. Armed with a sweep of the regular season, everybody expected UE to finally nail that elusive title, but nay would be the Fates’ answer. The call to excellence rings again this year, but will UE finally stay true to form? Coach Dindo Pumaren’s team has always been competitive. They’ve always been sharp and ready. However, they have never really been lucky. This year will see more of the same, especially now that they’ve lost key players in Mark Borboran, Jorel Canizares and Kelvin Gregorio. Even if Elmer Espiritu, Pari Llagas, Hans Thiele, Paul Lee, Marcy Arellano and James Martinez step up, the Warriors will still be bloodied after the smoke clears. They are shoe-ins for the Final Four, but I seriously doubt if they have the mettle to barge into the Finals again. Their talent abounds, but fortune’s smile deserts them. Forecast: 3rd place De La Salle (9-5, Champion – defeated UE in the Finals) A championship was taken from them, so they grabbed another one last year. After being counted out by several observers, the Archers blindsided the Eagles and the Warriors to snare the Season 70 diadem after their controversial suspension. Many have said that repeating would be difficult for this swaggering troop. Every other team will be gunning for them, but these guys from Taft relish that “bad-boy" tag. Coach Franz Pumaren is one of the game’s greatest cerebral talents. His detailed outlook of every encounter is evident in how his boys perform on the hardwood, especially when the game is on the line. Though he lost his foremost backcourt generals in TY Tang and Cholo Villanueva, Pumaren’s basketball aptitude still has good materials to work with. Mainstays Rico Maierhoffer, PJ Walsham, PJ Barua, Bader Malabes, and James Mangahas will lead their charge while upstarts LA Revilla, Joshua Webb, Maui Villanueva and Hyram Bagatsing will ably support. The BIG difference though will be JV Casio. He is this generation’s RenRen Ritualo, the ‘Dagger Shot’ man of Taft. Though his looks may symbolize the contrary, he sports an assassin’s resolve when the outcome hangs in the balance. La Salle is solid in every aspect, and, when healthy, is the deadliest group out there. Repeating is never easy, but these Archers just might make it look that way. I hate it, but this is my forecast: Champions again - Enzo Flojo