Armed conflicts and poverty: How war has taken its toll on Mindanao

Decades of armed conflict has taken its toll on Mindanao. GMA News Research's geographic information system (GIS) overlay shows that all but one of the provinces identified as conflict areas have remained mired in poverty, with poverty incidence worse than the national average. This year, the Department of Social Welfare and Development and the National Disaster Coordinating Council have recorded 32 armed conflicts. Twenty-eight of these armed encounters happened in Mindanao. North Cotabato and Maguindanao -- both with four incidents -- recorded the highest number of armed conflicts in the past eight months. The 2005 Philippine Human Development Report (PDHR) notes that from 1986 to 2004, 15 of the 21 provinces with the most number of armed conflicts are in Mindanao.

War and poverty The 2005 PHDR points out the connection between war and poverty in Mindanao. Based on their studies, conflict-ridden provinces have been consistently at the bottom in terms of quality of life.

• five provinces with the lowest life expectancy are in Muslim Mindanao: Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Maguindanao, Tawi-Tawi (2003)
• four of the 10 provinces at the bottom of the Human Development Index (measuring poverty, education, life expectancy) are also conflict areas: Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Basilan, and Sulu (2003)

Provinces most affected by Moro (MILF/MNLF) conflict by number of encounters and by number of casualties, 1986-2004 Source: PHDR 2005
BY NUMBER OF ENCOUNTERS	BY NUMBER OF CASUALTIES
Maguindanao	Maguindanao
North Cotabato	Lanao del Norte
Basilan	North Cotabato
Lanao del Norte	Lanao del Sur
Lanao del Sur	Basilan
Davao del Sur	Sulu
South Cotabato	Sultan Kudarat
Sultan Kudarat	Â
Sulu	Â
Zamboanga del Sur	Â

The PHD Report identified the provinces most affected by Moro conflict from 1986-2004 (see table above). A GIS overlay shows that ALL the provinces identified as conflict areas, except for Davao del Sur, have remained consistently poor from years 2000-2006. These provinces have poverty incidence worse than the national average. Overall, the overlay of conflict areas with poverty incidence in the country shows the following:

• 45% of consistently poor provinces are in Mindanao
• All provinces in the ARMM are consistently poor. (Note: Shariff Kabunsuan, the newest province in ARMM, was created in 2006. It was carved from Maguindanao.)
• Except for Davao del Sur, ALL provinces that monitored as sites of armed conflicts from January- Aug 2008 are consistently poor.