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Global job crisis may worsen sharply, says ILO


MANILA, Philippines - The global jobs crisis could worsen sharply this year and those who manage to keep working can expect a deterioration in employment conditions, the International Labor Organization (ILO) said Wednesday. The Geneva-based agency released Wednesday its latest Global Employment Trends report, which noted that working poverty, vulnerable employment and unemployment began to rise last year. Global unemployment, it said, rose to 6% last year to some 190 million, from 5.7% in 2007. An "optimistic" scenario, it said, would have just 18 million added to the worldwide jobless tally from 2007. Should "growth slow more rapidly this year and recovery be delayed into 2010", an increase of 51 million "is a possibility", the ILO said. For the region, ILO labor economist Steven Kapsos said Southeast Asia and the Pacific could post an unemployment rate of 6-6.4% this year from 5.5% in 2007, equivalent to an additional two to three million without jobs. "We haven’t yet seen [a] large increase in unemployment in the Philippines, but the crisis is also likely to affect workers in other ways that are somewhat more difficult to measure, such as declining hours of work, pressure for lower wages, and less job security," he said. "The issue in the region is not so much employment creation, but rather whether good quality jobs are being created..." The local unemployment rate was at 6.8% in October, latest data show, equivalent to one in ten of the country’s estimated 37 million-strong labor force. Mr. Kapsos noted that the Philippines’ large foreign reserves and a fiscal surplus could help mitigate the impact of the global crunch, but added "policymakers should not be complacent." "Appropriate policies must be designed and implemented. It is important to identify ways to create jobs amidst the crisis and to ensure that the poor and most vulnerable do not slip further behind. "That will help to ensure that a recovery occurs sooner rather than later." He highlighted the risk for migrant workers, on whom the Philippines depends for a significant part of its dollar reserves. Host governments, he said, could be forced to lay them off to free up jobs for their nationals but the result could backfire in terms of the skill sets the replacements would bring to companies. "[I]t would [also] be harmful to the firms where they work as they may have difficulties finding appropriately qualified workers to replace migrants," Mr. Kapsos said. Governments, he said, have to ensure that credit starts flowing and set monetary and fiscal stimulus plans which include the goals of job creation, improving employment prospects, and protecting the poor and vulnerable. In the long run, there should be a "focus on building skills and education of the workforce so that they are able to run once the race starts again." - BusinessWorld
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