Pulse Asia: 51% of Pinoys see 'trouble' if 2010 polls thwarted

MANILA, Philippines - Slightly more than half of Filipinos expect "much trouble" in the country if the May 2010 polls are postponed or canceled, according to a survey by pollster Pulse Asia. But the Pulse Asia survey also showed nearly seven of 10 Filipinos (65%) believe the 2010 polls will push through, despite speculations about the elections being thwarted. "A bare majority of Filipinos (51%) is of the opinion that the postponement or cancellation of the May 2010 elections will cause much trouble in the country. This is a view articulated by small majorities (51% to 56%) across all geographic areas and socio-economic classes, with the exception of Mindanao where this sentiment is expressed by a big plurality (44%)," it said on its Web site (www.pulseasia.com.ph). The survey was conducted last February 2 to 9 but released only Thursday. In its survey, Pulse Asia said only 27% of Filipinos do not believe that much trouble will ensue if the May 2010 elections are not held while 21% are ambivalent on the matter. Pulse Asia said the only notable movement in the overall figures between October 2008 and February 2009 is the 8-percentage point drop in the level of indecision on the matter. On the other hand, the survey said 65% of Filipinos believe there is a big possibility that the next elections will push through according to schedule. This was a sentiment shared by small to big majorities (55% to 76%) across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, it said. About one in 10 (13%) believes otherwise and 22% are undecided on the matter. "Between October 2008 and February 2009, the overall level of indecision declines (-8 percentage points) while there is a slight increase (+6 percentage points) in the percentage of Filipinos expecting the next elections to be held as scheduled," it said. But the survey also showed no clear winner would emerge in the presidential race if the May 2010 elections were held today. "If the May 2010 elections were conducted now, it would be a very close race with four probable candidates enjoying nearly the same overall voter preferences," it said. These are Vice President Manuel "Noli" de Castro Jr. (19%), Senator Francis Escudero (17%), former President Joseph Estrada (16%), and Senator Manuel Villar Jr. (15%). Others include Senator Loren Legarda (12%), Sen. Manuel Roxas II (8%), Sen. Panfilo Lacson (6%), Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay (2%), and Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Chairman Bayani Fernando (1%). "But while Filipinos continue to be divided in their choice for the country’s next president, virtually all of them have a favored presidential candidate with less than one in 10 (4%) not expressing support for any of the nine individuals included in this survey’s presidential probe," Pulse Asia said. Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, Escudero is the preferred presidential bet in Metro Manila (27%) and the best-off Class ABC (23%) while in the Visayas, Senator Villar has an edge (25%) over the others. In Mindanao and the poorest Class E, de Castro (24% and 19%, respectively) and Estrada (23% and 20%, respectively) enjoy almost the same level of electoral support. Those in the rest of Luzon are almost equally supportive of the presidential bids of de Castro (19%), Escudero (17%), Estrada (17%), Legarda (15%), and Villar (14%). In the most numerous Class D, de Castro (20%) has a slight lead over the other probable candidates. "The overall figures recorded in February 2009 do not differ significantly from those posted in October 2008 with whatever changes being recorded during this period (-2 to +2 percentage points) clearly falling within the survey’s margin of error (+/- 3 percentage points)," Pulse Asia said. The vice-presidential race continues to be a two-way contest between Escudero and Legarda. "While 26% of Filipinos would vote for Senator Escudero as vice-president if the May 2010 elections were held today, 22% would support the candidacy of Senator Legarda. These two legislators enjoy nearly the same levels of electoral support in the rest of Luzon (25% versus 23%), the Visayas (28% versus 23%), Mindanao (21% versus 19%), Class D (25% versus 23%), and Class E (22% versus 24%)," it said. But it said Escudero has an edge over Legarda in Metro Manila (30% versus 22%) and Class ABC (36% versus 14%). The only other personality who scores a double-digit vice-presidential voter preference is de Castro (14%). The other probable candidates included in the vice-presidential probe register voter preferences of 8% or less. A negligible percentage of Filipinos (3%) does not have a favored vice-presidential candidate at the moment, it said. Between October 2008 and February 2009, Escudero enjoys a slight improvement in his overall voter preference (+5 percentage points). During this period, the other probable vice-presidential candidates included in the survey do not register any notable movements – positive or negative – in their respective voter preferences. Meanwhile, public interest in the May 2010 senatorial elections remains high; 16 of the 65 personalities included in the senatorial probe have a statistical chance of winning if the elections were conducted now. "With a little over a year to go before the May 2010 elections, Filipinos continue to express much interest in the next electoral exercise as they name a mean of ten and a median of 12 (out of a maximum of 12) of their preferred senatorial candidates. Across all of the survey’s sub-groupings, mean figures range from nine to ten names while a median figure of 12 is recorded in every geographic area and socio-demographic grouping," it said. Out of the 65 personalities whose senatorial voter preferences are probed in this survey, 16 have a statistical chance of winning if the May 2010 elections were held today, Pulse Asia said. Virtually all Filipinos have at least one preferred senatorial candidate, it added. Currently leading the senatorial race is Senate President Pro Tempore Jose "Jinggoy" Estrada whose overall voter preference (52.8%) puts him anywhere from first to third places. Next are Senators Pilar Juliana Cayetano (48.8%) and Roxas (48.8%). Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago’s re-election bid receives the support of 47.0% of Filipinos and gives her a statistical ranking of 2nd to 5th places. In 4th to 7th places is former Senate President Franklin Drilon (42.7%). "Senator Ana Consuelo Madrigal would be re-elected by 38.8% of Filipinos while Senator Ramon Revilla, Jr. would win another senatorial term with the support of 37.8% of Filipinos. Both legislators are ranked from 5th to 11th places," it said. Sharing the 6th to the 12th spots are Atty. Aquilino Pimentel III (36.1%), National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director-General Ralph Recto (35.5%), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (33.8%), and Optical Media Board (OMB) Chairman Edu Manzano (33.4%). Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) Chairman Vicente C. Sotto III is in 8th to 16th places with 31.2% backing his return to the Senate. Completing the list of probable winners are broadcaster Korina Sanchez (28.0%), Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (27.6%), Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay (27.2%), and Senator Richard Gordon (26.9%) – all landing in 12th to 16th places. Between October 2008 and February 2009, Manzano enjoys a significant improvement in his overall voter preference (+19.6 percentage points). The only other personality who registers a higher voter preference this quarter relative to October 2008 is Senator Estrada (+7.7 percentage points). During this period, there are no significant gains or erosions in the voter preferences of those candidates with a statistical chance of winning in the senatorial race. The survey was conducted Feb. 2 to 15, using face-to-face interviews with a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a ± 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a ± 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. News headlines at the time of the survey focused on the alleged bribery of several officials from the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) in relation to a drug case; the reported bid rigging behind road projects in the country being funded by the World Bank (WB); the planned automation of the May 2010 elections; the revival of congressional discussions on constitutional amendments; controversies involving the Supreme Court including the aborted plan to file impeachment charges against Chief Justice Reynato Puno; the closure of some companies and the laying off of workers both here and abroad; the Arroyo administration’s efforts to create jobs and provide assistance to laid off workers; and, the US Presidential election and the inauguration of President Barack Obama. - GMANews.TV