'Swine' flu scare just 2 notches away from a pandemic

MANILA, Philippines - In an apparent attempt to douse mounting fears over the “swine flu" virus, the Office International des Epizooties (OIE) on Tuesday, April 28, declared that the said global health problem could not yet be considered a pandemic, much less an outbreak. But looking at the “pandemic chart" of the World Health Organization, the swine flu scare had already prompted international health authorities to raise the global pandemic alert to Phase 4. This means that the current situation, based on the WHO standard, is just barely two notches away from a “pandemic state" or Phase 6, when at least two outbreaks had been declared in two world regions. But a radio report quoted WHO director general for Health and Security and Environment Dr. Keiji Fukuda as saying that although already at Phase 4, the current situation could still not be considered as “inevitable." The Philippine government has assured that the public can still heave a sigh of relief because the virus has not yet breached local shores. Nonetheless, concerned government agencies have stepped up efforts to prevent the strain from reaching the country. The government says it’s prepared for another scare, given its experience in battling SARS and the avian flu. “Nang nagkaroon tayo ng threat ng SARS at bird flu, naghanda ng todo ang gobyerno natin. Kung papaano iyon maisa-save ang ating mga kababayan [The government’s preparation was sufficient enough to protect our citizens when the country faced threats from SARS and bird flu]," National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales said in a radio interview. To battle the “swine flu" virus, the government reinstalled thermal scanners in six international airports, which were used during the SARS and avian flu scares. “We did not dismantle that structure of prevention. Ang ating Health department ay may infrastructure para aksyunan itong bagong threat na nakikita natin [Our Health department has the infrastructure to fight this new threat]," Gonzales said. Overseas, coast-to-coast As of Monday afternoon, April 27, health authorities in the United States have recorded 40 confirmed cases of the novel flu infection, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Of the five affected US states, New York had the most number of victims with 28 people confirmed to have contracted the virus. Other states where the virus was detected among humans included California, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas. In neighboring Canada, six cases have so far been reported by government authorities. Cases have already been reported outside of North America – in the United Kingdom, Brazil, Colombia, Spain, and as far as South Korea. Latest reports show that the virus has already reached New Zealand – with 11 confirmed cases so far – and Israel, which entered the tally with one suspected victim, according to the Associated Press. The virus is believed to have been spread to other people in other countries by travelers who had gone to Mexico, the “epicenter" of the latest virus scare. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said it was not keen on hoisting a travel ban on the affected countries, but the government discouraged Filipinos from flying to said countries. The World Health Organization’s Pandemic Influenza Phases Phase 1 – No viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans. Phase 2 – An animal influenza virus is considered a potential pandemic threat because the virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals already causes infection in humans. Phase 3 – An animal-to-animal or human-to-animal influenza resassortant virus has caused intermittent cases or small clusters of disease in humans, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission that could trigger community-level outbreaks. Phase 4 – There is sustained human-to-human transmission of an animal-to-animal or human-to-animal influenza reassortant virus that could trigger community-level outbreaks. The WHO said that this stage indicates a significant increase in the risk for a pandemic, but it does not necessarily suggest that a pandemic will inevitably occur. Phase 5 – There is human-to-human virus transmission in at least two countries in one WHO region. The WHO said this phase strongly signals the imminence of a pandemic. Phase 6 – This stage indicates that a global pandemic is underway. There are widespread community-level outbreaks in at least another country in a different WHO region. This is in addition to the criteria prescribed in Phase 5. Post-peak Period – Under this phase, pandemic disease levels will appear to be decreasing, but it will remain unsure whether additional pandemic waves will occur. Post-pandemic period – The pandemic virus level will be similar to that of a seasonal influenza A virus. However, the WHO suggests that surveillance should be maintained and pandemic preparedness and response plans should be updated. A recovery phase and evaluation should likewise ensue. Mark Merueñas and Sophia Dedace, GMANews.TV