People Power may erupt amid 'desperate' Cha-cha move - analysts

MANILA, Philippines - Another “People Power" might erupt following the “desperate" move of administration lawmakers to railroad the approval of a measure transforming the House of Representatives into a constituent assembly to change the 1987 Constitution, three political analysts interviewed by GMANews.TV warned on Wednesday. "The merger [of Lakas-CMD and the Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino] and the approval of House Resolution 1109 were both fast-tracked. Obviously, somebody also wants to fast-track Cha-cha [Charter change], implying that elections won’t push through," said Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Economic Reform. The House’s move to have the 1987 Constitution amended amid the impending 2010 polls might result in “public outrage" because Filipinos, who, based on surveys are against Cha-cha, “are already focused on the elections," according to Casiple. “HR 1109 is unconstitutional. This is a desperate move. Sobrang garapal na ito [This is shameless]. I see another People Power. I think we are in for a fight. Cha-cha is not what the people want. Lahat nasa elections na ang atensyon [Everybody’s attention is already on the elections]," he said. Most Pinoys oppose Cha-cha Pollsters Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, and Ibon Foundation each came out with surveys showing that majority of Filipinos oppose Cha-cha. According to Pulse Asia, the overall percentage of Filipinos against Cha-cha remained “constant" between November 2006 and February 2009. In its February 2009 survey, Pulse Asia said 42 percent or about four of 10 Filipinos were against Cha-cha, 33 percent support amending the Constitution, while 25 percent were undecided on the matter. The SWS survey also showed that two of three of Filipinos would oppose Cha-cha if it would allow President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to stay in power after her term. Sixty-six percent of voting-age Filipinos were opposed to amending the charter if it would be used for Mrs. Arroyo to continue as chief official of the Philippines, according to the February 2009 survey of the SWS. Survey results from Ibon as of April 2009 show that 80 percent of Filipinos who are aware of moves for Cha-cha did not approve changes in the Constitution. The top three regions opposed to Cha-cha were Western Mindanao (95 percent), Central Mindanao (94.5 percent) and the Cordillera Autonomous Region (90.5 percent), based on the Ibon survey. People’s wrath to intensify Ateneo de Manila University political science professor Benito Lim said "people’s wrath will intensify" if President Arroyo "will call out the military to stop demonstrations against Cha-cha." "Millions of students will become new voters in the 2010 elections. Mobilizations will depend on how they will be organized. If the issue will be repeatedly covered by the media and explain its implications, then it will have impact on the youth. Somebody has to guide them," said Lim. Political analyst Joel Rocamora of Akbayan party-list said that moves for Cha-cha could be stopped if the Catholic Church, the Iglesia ni Cristo, El Shaddai, opposition politicians, and left-leaning organizations could together mobilize at least 250,000 people against Con-ass. "Anti-Cha-cha forces will have about one month and a half to block Cha-cha in the House if nothing will happen between now and Friday," said Rocamora, adding that a united move from the presidentiables would also help block the administration’s move for Cha-cha. Congress will adjourn on June 5, and will not convene until the third week of July or after President Arroyo delivers her State of the Nation Address. Rocamora said that following the approval of HR 1109, "it is now very clear that Arroyo continues to move to keep herself in power after 2010." He claimed that even if HR 1109 stated that the term of office of the incumbent president and vice president would not be extended, this did not mean that Mrs. Arroyo would no longer stay in power. “She may no longer stay in power under the presidential form of government. But under the parliamentary form of government, she will continue as the nation’s leader by becoming prime minister," said Rocamora. Can’t pay debt to Gloria Casiple agrees. He said that once formed, the constituent assembly would probably call for a shift to the parliamentary form of government and for elections of parliamentary members and prime minister. Casiple observed that HR 1109 has no specific proposal on what provisions in the charter should be revised or amended. "Once convened, the assembly will have plenary power and discuss and propose anything under the sun, and could even make Arroyo prime minister for life," Casiple said. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of a Senate-less constituent assembly, "it will go against jurisprudence," leaving the public with no other alternative “but to go back to the streets," according to Casiple. But Lim believes that even if most of the Supreme Court justices were appointed by Arroyo, "some of them still maintain their integrity and will follow the law." "They can’t rule in favor of Cha-cha to pay their political debt to Gloria," he said. - GMANews.TV