Villar leads, Erap inches up in Pulse Asia survey

Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. would likely emerge the winner if presidential elections were held now, according to a new survey by pollster Pulse Asia. Pulse Asia said one in four Filipinos (25%) would elect Villar as the next president, while 19% would vote for former President Joseph Estrada. "With less than nine months to go before the next elections, virtually every Filipino already has a preferred presidential candidate," it added in an article on its Web site. Vice President Manuel "Noli" de Castro was in third place at 16%, while Senators Francis Escudero and Manuel Roxas II also score double-digit presidential voter preferences (12% and 11%, respectively). Others included in the presidential probe obtain voter preferences of 6% or less. The latest Pulse Asia survey reaffirms Villar’s lead in the 2nd Quarter 2009 presidential preference survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS), in which De Castro a not-so-close second. Twenty-two percent of the respondents in that survey chose Villar, while De Castro got 18 percent. Estrada and Escudero were tied at 14 percent, followed by Senators Loren Legarda (10 %), Manuel Roxas II (9%), and Panfilo Lacson (6%). Although the filing of candidacy for the May 2010 presidential elections is still in November, Villar and other presidential aspirants have signified their intention to seek the position President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is set to vacate on June 30.2010. Of the leaders in the Pulse Asia and SWS surveys, only De Castro could be considered a potential administration candidate, although the vice president has been observed sometimes distancing himself from the administration. Villar plans to be the standard bearer of the Nacionalista Party, which he revived. Roxas is being eyed as candidate of the Liberal Party. Estrada is threatening to run should the opposition fail to united under one presidential candidate. His running, however, could be contested since the Philippine Constitution allows for only a single six-year-term for the president. Pulse Asia said the only significant change in overall presidential voter preferences between May and August 2009 is recorded by Villar (+11 percentage points). But it added that during the time its survey was conducted, Estrada posted a marginal improvement in his overall voter preference (+4 percentage points). On the other hand, Escudero experienced a slight decline in the level of public support for his presidential bid (-5 percentage points). "At present, two or more individuals share the lead across geographic areas and socio-demographic groupings," Pulse Asia said. By region and economic class In Metro Manila, Villar is the most favored presidential bet (25%), with Escudero (22%) and Estrada (19%) close behind. About the same percentages of those living in the rest of Luzon are supportive of the candidacies of Villar (22%), Estrada (19%), de Castro (16%), and Escudero (15%). Among Visayans, Villar recorded the highest voter preference (30%), with de Castro (22%) in second place. In Mindanao, Estrada and Villar record the highest voter preference (26%). In the best-off Class ABC, Escudero (30%) and Villar (28%) lead the list of presidential candidates. Those in the most numerous Class D are most supportive of Villar (25%) and Estrada (19%) while those in the poorest Class E are most inclined to vote for Villar (23%), Estrada (23%), and de Castro (22%). Basis of preference The survey also showed one in four respondents (25%) voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate's many accomplishments. On the other hand, one in five (20%) respondents rationalized their choice of candidate based on the preferred bet's pro-poor orientation. More than one in ten (12%) cited the candidate's being helpful to others, especially OFWs (8%), as the reason for supporting a candidate's presidential bid. Other reasons cited in supporting a candidate's bid is his/her not being corrupt (6%), proven capability in governance (4%), goodness (4%), being principled (3%), and intelligence (3%). The survey was conducted July 28 to August 10, using face-to-face interviews with 1,800 respondents. Among the major developments immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey were the hospitalization and death of former President Corazon Aquino; the last State of the Nation Address (SONA) of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her latest visit to the United States (US); the unexplained growth in President Arroyo’s wealth since assuming the presidency in 2001; the increasing number of probable presidential candidates for the May 2010 elections; the controversies surrounding the selection of two new members of the Supreme Court and this year’s National Artist awardees; and the loss of lives and destruction of infrastructure caused by two powerful typhoons. On the economic front, inflation in July fell to a 22-year low. A +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level applied to the survey. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: +/- 6% for Metro Manila, +/- 4% for the rest of Luzon and +/- 5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. - GMANews.TV