SWS survey: Noynoy, Villar preferred in 2010 elections

Two opposition leaders bested 11 others as the "best leaders to succeed PGMA [President Gloria M. Arroyo] in 2010," findings of a third-quarter Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed.

Frontrunner Noynoy Aquino, who was the preferred choice of 60% of 1,800 respondents nationwide, did even better than in previous surveys by other pollsters. Villar improved his rating but was still a far second. Aquino was consistently the preferred choice of over half of respondents in various surveys taken since early September, even before he had officially signaled his intent to run for higher office on September 9. But the SWS survey was the first that had Aquino break the 60% preference mark. The survey, conducted last Sep. 18-21 via face-to-face interviews with 1,800 adults nationwide, showed Senator Benigno Simeon "Noynoy" C. Aquino III, standard bearer of the Liberal Party, as the choice of 60% of the respondents, even as he was not included in previous surveys on this issue. The second most preferred successor was Sen. Manuel B. Villar, Jr., who led in the last survey. Mr. Villar got 37%, up three points from the 33% he got in the June survey. Incumbent President Gloria M. Arroyo was the least preferred at 0.5%, down from 1%. Messrs. Aquino and Villar were followed by former Pres. Joseph "Erap" E. Estrada with 18%; Sen. Francis Joseph G. Escudero at 15%; Sen. Manuel "Mar" A. Roxas II at 12%; Vice-president Manuel "Noli" L. de Castro, Jr., 8%; Sen. Loren B. Legarda, 5%; Defense Secretary Gilberto C. Teodoro Jr., 4%; Sen. Panfilo M. Lacson and Makati Mayor Jejomar C. Binay with 2% each; as well as Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani F. Fernando and Jesus Is Lord Movement leader Bro. Eduardo "Eddie" C. Villanueva with 1% each. Respondents were asked in Filipino: "Under the present Constitution, the term of President Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to three names." No list of names was provided to prompt the respondents. Six percent could not give an answer, while 4% had no one to recommend.

Sought for comment, Mr. Aquino said he was "overwhelmed" by the results, adding that the survey indicated the "reforms yearned by the people." Adel A. Tamano, spokesman of the Nacionalista Party headed by Mr. Villar, said the party "remains confident of our chances in the May 2010 elections." "This is part of the dynamics of a political campaign, and we expect more changes to happen in the run up to the May 2010 elections. What is encouraging about this survey is that it shows that he [Mr. Villar] has solid support from the people," Mr. Tamano said. Mr. Estrada placed third with 18%, down from 25% in the survey conducted last June. Opposition in top slots The camp of Mr. Estrada, who is working on a tandem with Mr. Binay, welcomed the results. [See: Erap confirms tandem with Binay in 2010 polls] "We have yet to see if this will be sustained to May 2010. Nevertheless, it’s all opposition presidentiables in the top slots, so we are very happy with these results," Mr. Estrada’s spokesperson, Margaux M. Salcedo, said by phone. Mr. Fernando, who was among those who declared their presidential intentions early, said there was no backing out from his plan. "There was a misconception that I will not pursue my plan to run for president. Not all people were surveyed anyway," said Mr. Fernando. Others, including Palace officials, were not immediately available for comment. Ramon C. Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Economic Reform, attributed Mr. Aquino’s strong showing partly to the public sympathy sparked by the death last August 1 of his mother, "People Power" icon Corazon C. Aquino. Still, Mr. Casiple said, the survey showed that "people see that there is a political vacuum for reform" and that Sen. Aquino is "not a traditional politician." — BusinessWorld