Ramil's winds might rival Pepeng's; no word on rain

(As of 12:10 a.m., Oct. 18, 2009)) Typhoon Ramil's slow hovering over the Pacific Ocean might allow it to gather wind strength that would rival, if not surpass, that of Pepeng, with Pagasa officials forecasting an early Wednesday landfall in northern Luzon. But there is still no forecast about rainfall, which is how Pepeng did its most damage. This was the latest warning issued by the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) in a briefing before midnight Saturday. Pagasa expects Ramil (international name Lupit), last spotted at 930 kilometers East of Casiguran, Aurora province, to make landfall on Wednesday in northern Luzon, which typhoon 'Pepeng' (Parma) had battered two weeks ago. In an earlier interview on TV, Pagasa chief Prisco Nilo said Ramil could even become stronger than Pepeng. "Dahil sa pagbagal ng bagyo, nagbibigay ito ng maraming pagkakataon para siya ay lalong lumakas (Ramil’s slow movement gives it more time to gather strength at sea)," he said. Weather forecasters are also not discounting the possibility of Ramil’s turning into a supertyphoon. "Puwede siyang maging supertyphoon [si Ramil]… pero sa ngayon hindi pa (Ramil could turn into a supertyphoon)," said weather sciences bureau chief Nathaniel Cruz said, adding that a cyclone could only be categorized as a supertyphoon once it achieves strengths more than 200 kph. As of 10 p.m. Saturday, Ramil currently packs maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center with gustiness of 185 kph, and is expected to intensify as it approaches land, the Pagasa said. Pepeng roared in and out of Luzon for 10 days before exiting the Philippine area of responsibility last Saturday. Before making its first landfall in the Cagayan province on Oct. 3, Pepeng packed maximum sustained winds of 175 kph. It exited into the South China Sea the next day, but it made another landfall over Ilocos Norte after being pulled back on Oct. 6 by tropical cyclone "Quedan" (Melor), which was blowing toward southern Japan. A relatively weaker Pepeng returned for a third landfall on Oct. 8 before exiting the country two days later. Pepeng affected at least 662,274 families or 3,106,978 people in 4,585 villages in 361 towns and 35 cities and 27 provinces. [See: Pepeng death toll now at 419, surpasses Ondoy’s] Don't be complacent Government warned residents, particularly those in the northern regions, against letting the sunny weather lull them into a false sense of security. Pagasa advised people living in high-risk areas to evacuate as early as now. Press Secretary Cerge Remonde, meanwhile, voiced concern over reports that residents living beside esteros or waterways and creeks in Quezon City have started returning to their homes. He said it is time for people to learn the lessons from the onslaughts of “Ondoy" (Ketsana) and Pepeng. “God forbid naman, pero that situation (God forbid that situation but), it’s time we learn from the lessons of ‘Ondoy’ and ‘Pepeng.’ Let us not tempt fate so much anymore," he said on government radio. Remonde reiterated President Arroyo’s instructions to local government officials and the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) to “enhance" their preparations. Forced evacuations in Benguet In the northern province of Benguet, where at least 288 were killed in Pepeng-triggered landslides, police officers were going house-to-house to tell people to leave the affected communities before the latest storm, Gov. Nestor Fongwan said. "Definitely, they must go," Fongwan told The Associated Press. Other Benguet communities identified as hazardous also were ordered evacuated, Fongwan said. Disaster officers urged local officials to tell residents to immediately evacuate at the first sign of landslides, Cordillera regional civil defense chief Olive Luces said. "Some people are just really stubborn and refuse to leave," she said, adding that survivors of Pepeng's landslides told of watching water seep from the walls and floors of homes before the ground collapsed around them. Military choppers were airlifting food supplies to areas unreachable by land to prepare for Ramil, she said. Excess water To prepare for Ramil’s arrival, Pagasa had also advised dam managers to go on with the release of water in at least seven major dams in Luzon. “Dahil sa inaasahan nating pagdating ni Ramil tuluy-tuloy ang pagbukas. Tuluy-tuloy pa rin sa ganitong rate (Because we are anticipating Ramil's landfall, we are continuing the opening of spillways and the rate of the water release)," Pagasa weather specialist Max Peralta told GMA News. Of the seven dams, the Magat Dam in Isabela province is currently releasing the biggest volume of water with 833 cubic meter per second (cms) through two of its floodgates. The other dams releasing water to the river to prevent reaching their respective spilling levels include Angat Dam and Ipo Dam, both in Bulacan; Ambuklao Dam and Binga Dam in Benguet; San Roque Dam in Pangasinan; and Pantabangan Dam in Nueva Ecija. At 12 noon, the San Roque Dam increased the rate of its water release from 518 cms to 800 cms, as ordered by the National Power Corporation. “Dahil sa pagkawasak ng ating mga dike [sa Pangasinan], inoobserbahan ng Pagasa ang level ng water sa Carmen [in Rosales] dahil inaalalayan na hindi umapaw ang karagdagang outflow ng San Roque (Because our dikes were destroyed, Pagasa is currently observing the water level in Carmen so that we could make sure that the added outflow from San Roque won't overflow)," added Susan Espenueva of Pagasa’s hydro metrological division. Villages to be affected by the release of additional volumes of water are San Manuel, San Nicolas, Tayug, Santa Maria, Asingan, Villasis, Alcala, Bautista, Rosales and Bayambang in Pangasinan. Relief caravan postponed Meanwhile, the threat of bad weather has prompted the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) to postpone a relief caravan to areas affected by “Ondoy" and “Pepeng." DSWD Secretary Esperanza Cabral said her agency has instead decided to speed up the distribution of relief goods to typhoon-hit areas. “Canceled muna ang relief caravan, ang caravan of 100 trucks. Sa ngayon ang DSWD nagde-deliver ng goods sa bawa’t region para bago dumating ang bagyo magkakaroon sila ng stock na gagamitin (We have put off the relief caravan of 100 trucks for now. In the meantime, the DSWD will deliver goods to typhoon-hit regions so they can have stocks of relief goods to use)," she said. She said they continue to distribute relief goods in Northern Luzon and in some parts of Metro Manila that are still flooded. Other areas where the DSWD will distribute relief goods include those around Laguna Lake, Cainta in Rizal, and Pasig, Taguig and Muntinlupa cities in Metro Manila. The caravan was initially scheduled to leave Malacañang at 6 a.m. on Monday to deliver relief goods to calamity victims in Northern Luzon. Health officials say 1.7 million people exposed to floodwaters in and around metropolitan Manila were being threatened by leptospirosis, a disease spread by water contaminated with urine of infected animals. The disease has killed 90 of 1,027 reported cases, Health Secretary Francisco Duque said. - with an AP report