Pagasa: 'Ramil' may delay landfall or even spare RP

The projected landfall of typhoon "Ramil" (Lupit) may be delayed by at least a day - or it may even spare the country altogether, state weather forecasters said Wednesday. Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Ramil may slow down, even as the chances of it changing course and heading for Taiwan had gotten bigger. "At this time lumalaki ang probability na maari siyang lilihis nang bahagya at pumunta ng Taiwan (At this time the probability is growing that Ramil may change course slightly and head for Taiwan)," Pagasa head Prisco Nilo said at a predawn briefing.

When do we call a storm a storm? State weather forecasters use this guide when classifying weather disturbances visiting Philippine territory. 'Nando' has maximum winds of a tropical depression. Source: Pagasa

But he said Pagasa will still stick to its scenario that Ramil will make landfall in Cagayan. "Dahil inaasahang babagal siya later today or tomorrow, Friday morning inaasahang mag-landfall (We expect it to slow down today or Thursday so it may make landfall Friday)," he said. In a related development, Pagasa weather sciences chief Nathaniel Cruz said that Ramil would likely spare Metro Manila. However, rains would continue to pour at the area and even in Visayas and Mindanao because of an intertropical convergence zone. Different paths In its 5:45 a.m. forecast, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for its part, indicated the probability of Ramil hitting extreme Northern Luzon Thursday or Friday. JMA's track image showed that the cyclone's center may head toward the area between extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan, but it will have a storm warning area of up to 390-km radius until Friday. Ramil's track predicted by JMA is different from those predicted by Pagasa and the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center. [See images on the right] Storm surges Pagasa weather bureau chief Nathaniel Cruz also warned of possible storm surges in the coastal areas of Cagayan and Isabela, where the cyclone may make landfall. "Itong coastal area ng Cagayan at Isabela posibleng makararanas ng storm surge habang palapit si Ramil (Coastal areas of Cagayan and Isabela may experience storm surges as Ramil nears)," he said. He said rainshowers may be expected in Metro Manila. On the other hand, Cruz said Ramil is still more powerful than "Pepeng" (Parma), with Pepeng doing its damage only because it made landfall in the country thrice. "Paalala sa Northern Luzon, huwag lang malakas na hangin ang paghandaan nila, pati ang malakas na pag-ulan (We advise residents in Northern Luzon to prepare not just for winds but also for heavy rains)," he said in an interview on dzXL radio. Pagasa tracking Pagasa's 5 a.m. advisory said that Ramil was estimated at 600 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan, with maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 210 kph. It was moving west at 15 kph and is expected to be 280 km east-northeast of Aparri, Cagayan Thursday morning, and 70 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan Friday morning. By Saturday morning it is expected to be at the vicinity of Laoag City or 50 km north of Vigan City. Areas under Storm Signal No. 2 include Batanes Islands, Cagayan, Calayan Island, Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, and Isabela. Under Signal No. 1 are Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Mt. Province, Benguet, La Union, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, Northern Quezon, and Polillo Island. A public storm Signal No. 1 is raised when the cyclone's wind speed reaches 30 to 60 kph. Signal No. 2 is raised when the cyclone's wind speed reaches 61 to 100 kph. - GMANews.TV