Defections from ruling party point to 2-horse race in 2010

The stream of defections from the ruling party is making a head-to-head contest between senators Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar a likelier scenario in next year's 2010 elections. In an interview with GMANews.TV, political analyst Ramon Casiple said the hemorrhaging of Lakas-Kampi-CMD members is expected to change the political landscape in favor of Aquino and Villar, who have been front runners in surveys for most preferred presidential aspirants. Meanwhile, the administration party's declared standard bearer, Defense Secretary Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro, has been mired in single-digit ratings. “Si Gibo (Gilberto Teodoro) di tumataas ang ratings. Kaya ang mga taga-Lakas-Kampi, hahanap ng oposisyon. Ayaw ma-identify kay Gloria mismo. Kaya walang gustong tumkabo (sa ilalim ng Lakas) kahit sa ground level. Walang value added kay Gibo," Casiple said.

Last Saturday, the Liberal Party said it had sworn in about 125 local officials and other key administration allies that have left Lakas-Kampi-CMD. These include Alaminos, Pangasinan Mayor Hernani Braganza, Pangasinan Rep. Victor Agbayani, North Cotabato Rep. Bernardo Piñol Jr., Cavite Gov. Erineo “Ayong" Maliksi, the Osmena clan of Cebu, and Cesar Montano – the actor who ran for senator in the 2007 elections under the administration party but lost. Villar’s Nacionalista Party, for its part, included on its roster the following former Lakas members: Governors Luis Raymund Villafuerte (Camarines Sur), Rogelio Espina (Biliran), Douglas Cagas (Davao del Sur), and Robert Ace Barbers (Surigao del Norte). It was also reported on Sunday that some 240 local officials from various provinces across the country have shifted from the administration coalition in favor of NP. Aside from bad news for Teodoro, the shifting of political allegiances signifies the continuing weak party system in the Philippines. “Walang genuine political party system. Ang daling mag-balimbing," Casiple said. But that could also mean that former allies could still swing back if the political winds blow the other way. That remains a remote possibility since bandwagons create their own momentum. Don't count out Gibo Despite the defections, long-time political observer Tony Gatmaitan cautions that no one should count out administration standard bearer Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro Jr. "The trapos (traditional politicians) will still lean to him. It may come down to the sure machine votes for Gibo versus the 'anti' sentiment for Noynoy," said Gatmaitan, who heads the political risk assessment firm, Political Economy Applied Research (PEAR). He adds that he believes that "Villar's best days are over" because the opposition sentiment has shifted to Aquino, while most local government officials and their machines will side with Teodoro. The administration still commands the loyalties of thousands of local officials across the land, many of whom depend on the national government's largesse for their own political fortunes. "The governors will be key in the elections. They are the gatekeepers," Gatmaitan says. But Teodoro's window of opportunity may be closing, especially if he doesn't shoot up soon in the ratings. The end of the year will also be accompanied by various election-related restrictions that may limit the administration's financial help to his struggling candidacy. Teodoro is set to relinquish his post as Defense Secretary on November 16, four days before the start of the filing of certificates of candidacies from November 20 to December 1. Kiss of death? Last Saturday, the Philippine Star quoted Pampanga first district Rep. Carmelo Lazatin as saying that the the President hinted at resigning as Lakas-Kampi-CMD president to dissociate Teodoro from the negative attitude toward Mrs. Arroyo. “She said she felt she was not contributing positively to the candidacy of Teodoro so it would be better for her to resign and give way to younger leaders," Lazatin said. - With reporting by Howie Severino, GMANews.TV