Arroyo 91% sure to run for House seat, poll lawyer says

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's "body language" reveals a 91-percent certainty she will run for congresswoman of Pampanga's second district in next year's elections, a poll lawyer said Monday. Lawyer Romulo Macalintal made this assessment a day before the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy. "Mga 91 percent sa body language," Macalintal said when asked by GMA News' Arnold Clavio how sure Mrs. Arroyo will be running for a congressional seat. "Subalit di natin masasabi kung ano (But we can't tell for sure what will happen," Macalintal hastily said, adding, "Kasi katulad ng nangyari kay Ebdane, lahat ng body language nandun na, ngunit sa bandang huli pala ay di rin tatakbo (Look at what happened to Ebdane, he showed all the body language, but in the end he decided not to run)."
Macalintal was referring to former Public Works Secretary Hermogenes Ebdane Jr., who had quit his post to pursue his presidential bid. On Sunday, however, an emotional Ebdane announced that he will no longer run due to insufficient funds. [See: Emotional Ebdane backs out of presidential race] Later in a chance interview at the Commission on Elections (Comelec) office in Manila where he accompanied former senator Vicente Sotto III in filing his certificate of candidacy for senator, Macalintal said Mrs. Arroyo was expected to announce her political plans by Monday noon. "I just talked to the President and she said she will announce today before lunchtime whether to run or not to run," Macalintal said. Mikey to give way Mrs. Arroyo's son, incumbent Pampanga second district Representative Juan Miguel "Mikey" Arroyo, told GMANews.TV in an interview that he is not yet certain what elective post he will aim for, or when he will file his own certificate of candidacy. "If my mother runs for Congress, there's a clamor for her to run, siyempre I have to give way for her to run (Of course I have to give way for her to run)," said Mikey, who is on his second term. [See: For yet another day, calls for Arroyo to run for Congress persist] Under the law, a congressman can stay in the same post for three consecutive terms. Mrs. Arroyo has visited Pampanga at least 50 times this year alone, fueling speculations that she will seak a House seat in next year's polls. [See: Arroyo sets 50th visit to Pampanga] Administration critics have alleged that once she is elected as representative, her colleagues in Congress would push for a shift to a parliamentary system of government, which would enable Mrs. Arroyo to run for prime minister.

Whether Mrs. Arroyo's bid for a House seat will be contested (if she indeed runs) remains to be seen. Sociology professor and civil society leader Randy David, who had earlier expressed that he might consider going against Mrs. Arroyo if she runs for the post, said Monday that he has decided to heed his family's request for him not to go into politics. "Kung ako lang masusunod talagang sasabak ako dito, pero ayaw ko naman idawit ang aking pamilya (If I were the only one deciding I would enter this race, but I don't want to give undue trouble to my family)," he added, noting that he doesn't want his younger brother Pablo, a bishop in Pampanga, to get caught up in local politics. The 'boss of all warlords' David said it was difficult to contest Mrs. Arroyo in Pampanga, saying, "Ang kalaban mo rito higante, eh. Ito yung amo ng lahat ng mga warlord (You will be going against a giant; the boss of warlords)." Mrs. Arroyo's closeness to the Ampatuans, the most powerful political clan in Maguindanao, has been criticized since the gruesome massacre in Maguindanao that resulted in the deaths of at least 57 people, including around 30 journalists. "Nag-iingat ang mga tao (The people are being cautious)," David said. "Kung pwede siyang magbuhos ng public works doon, pwede rin niyang gamitin ang kanyang kapangyarihan bilang presidente upang gipitin ang mga negosyante na hindi nagko-cooperate (If she can pour public works into the province, she can also use her position as president to intimidate businessmen who aren't cooperating)." David maintained that he was against Mrs. Arroyo's possible entry into the race, saying it was an insult to the country’s democratic institutions. "Kapag siya ay nanalong kongresista, at tiyak na magiging Speaker yan, kung hindi man lilipat sa parliamentary system kung saan ay pinuno ang punong ministro, iho-hostage nila ang bagong presidente at mananatili tayo sa bulok na sistema ng pulitika dito sa atin," David said. (If she wins as congresswoman, and she is certain to become Speaker, she and her colleagues will hostage the new president even if we do not shift to a parliamentary system where the prime minister is the leader. We will remain in a rotten political system.) Mrs. Arroyo has been president for eight years, the longest a person has stayed as chief executive next to the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who held the country's top position for 20 years. She took over the presidency in 2001 when then-President Joseph Estrada was forced to step down amid popular calls for him to relinquish power due to allegations of corruption. In 2004, Mrs. Arroyo ran and won as president in an election alleged to be marred by fraud. [See: 'Hello, Garci' timeline] - with a report from Andreo Calonzo/LBG/RSJ, GMANews.TV