Pulse Asia: Aside from Arroyo, 3 personalities carry 'kiss of death'

Aside from President Gloria Arroyo, three other popular personalities - former President Joseph Estrada, Filipino boxing champ Emmanuel "Manny" Pacquiao, and television host Willie Revillame - also carry the proverbial "kiss of Death." This was one of the findings of a new survey conducted by pollster Pulse Asia in late October. "Small to sizable majorities (58 percent to 79 percent) are surely/probably not supporting a presidential bet endorsed by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, former President Joseph Estrada, Mr. Willie Revillame, and People’s Champ Manny Pacquiao," Pulse Asia said in its Website. On the other hand, it said the presidential bid of a candidate endorsed by these personalities "would be surely/probably supported by 15 percent to 37 percent of Filipinos." While it said a candidate supported by television personality Kris Aquino would "surely/probably get the support of 45 percent of Filipinos," that candidate "would surely/probably not be elected by 49 percent." On the other hand, Pulse Asia noted a presidential bet endorsed by any of these personalities would certainly get the support of at most 11 percent of Filipinos only. "Electoral endorsements for president coming from any of these individuals would have no effect on the presidential choices of 2 percent to 5 percent of Filipinos, while 3 percent are unable to say what impact such endorsements would have on their choice for president in the May 2010 elections," it added.

67 percent believe polls to take place Amid speculations of about a “no-election" (No-El) scenario in 2010 to keep the present administration in power, two of three Filipinos still believe next year's polls will push through. But that survey showed that nearly half of Filipinos believe there would be "much trouble" in the country if the polls are canceled. "Most Filipinos (67 percent) believe that there is a big possibility that next year’s elections will push through as scheduled while a big plurality (49 percent) is of the opinion that there will be much trouble in the country should the May 2010 elections be postponed or canceled," the survey indicated. It said 21 percent to 24 percent of Filipinos are not decided on whether the polls will take place as scheduled, while 11 percent believe there is a small possibility the polls will not take place. On the other hand, some 26 percent do not think much trouble will occur in case the elections are not held. "Between August and October 2009, there was a decline in the percentage of Filipinos inclined to believe that the postponement or cancellation of the May 2010 elections will result in much trouble (-11 percentage points) and an increase in the percentage of Filipinos who hold a contrary view (+8 percentage points)," Pulse Asia said. The survey showed majorities across geographic areas and socio-economic classes (57 percent to 80 percent) believe is it highly likely that the May 2010 elections will be held as scheduled. Residents of Region 10 and Caraga are most inclined to believe otherwise (25 percent) while those in Southern Luzon are most ambivalent on the matter (33 percent). The belief that violence will result if the May 2010 elections do not push through, is expressed by big pluralities to small majorities (43 percent to 64 percent) in Metro Manila, the Visayas, the rest of Luzon and particularly Northern/Central Luzon, and Region 11. In Southern Luzon, about the same percentages either think much trouble will result from the cancellation or postponement of the May 2010 elections or express ambivalence on the matter (41 percent versus 34 percent). In Mindanao, especially Regions 9, 10, 12, the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), and Caraga, nearly the same percentages express either agreement or disagreement with the view that there will be much trouble if next year’s polls are not held (37 percent to 39 percent versus 36 percent to 39 percent). 49 percent to support protests following No-El Slightly less than half of Filipinos (49 percent) are inclined to support but not join any protests that might arise if the May 2010 elections will not push through. "In the event that next year’s polls will not push through as scheduled, a near majority of Filipinos (49 percent) will support but will not join any protest actions resulting from the postponement or cancellation of the elections," it said. Pulse Asia said the rest will either not support and not join (41 percent) or will support and join such protests (10 percent). It said these figures are essentially the same as those recorded in August 2009. Near to big majorities (47 percent to 68 percent) of Metro Manilans, residents of Northern/Central Luzon, Western and Eastern Visayans, and those in all socio-economic classes say they will support but will not join protest actions should the May 2010 elections not be held as scheduled. Non-participation (not supporting and not joining) is most pronounced in Central Visayas and Mindanao, particularly in Regions 9, 11, 12, and the ARMM (51 percent to 58 percent). Almost the same percentages of those in the rest of Luzon and especially Southern Luzon, the Visayas as a whole, and Region 10 and Caraga in Mindanao will either support but not join or will not support and will not join such protest actions (46 percent to 49 percent versus 41 percent to 48 percent). 64 percent believe teachers can handle automated polls While only two of five Filipinos are aware of the automated system to be used next year, almost two out of three (64 percent) Filipinos believe the country’s public school teachers will perform their duty as members of the Board of Election Inspectors (BEI). A similar percentage (65 percent) believes the teachers are capable of managing the automated election system (AES) in next year’s polls. "The predominant public sentiment among Filipinos is one of trust in the impartiality of the public school teachers in their role as members of the BEI (64 percent). This is the view articulated by majorities in every geographic area (including sub-areas) and socio-economic class (55 percent to 80 percent), with the exception of Region 10 and Caraga (44 percent). Western Visayans are most inclined to believe in the impartiality of public school teachers as BEI members (80 percent)," Pulse Asia said. Only seven percent of Filipinos express a contrary opinion while 29 percent are ambivalent on the matter. Public indecision and distrust are most pronounced in Region 10 and the Caraga (38 percent and 18 percent, respectively). About two in three Filipinos (65 percent) believe that the country’s public school teachers are capable of managing the AES for the May 2010 elections. Such a sentiment is shared by majorities across geographic areas (including sub-areas) and socio-economic classes ranging from 55 percent in Region 11 to 86 percent in Western Visayas. "Again, the exception here is Region 10 and Caraga where fewer respondents (45 percent) are inclined to believe in the capability of public school teachers to manage the new system for next year’s polls," it said. Less than one in ten Filipinos (7 percent) does not think public school teachers are capable of managing the AES while nearly three in ten (29 percent) express indecision on the matter. Residents of Region 10 and Caraga are not only most ambivalent on the matter (39 percent) but are also most inclined not to believe in the capability of the country’s teacher to implement the AES next year (16 percent). On the other hand, only about two out of five Filipinos (40 percent) are aware of the AES that will be implemented in May 2010. The survey showed one in five (21 percent) said they have almost no or no knowledge about the new system to be used in the May 2010 elections. Some 13 percent claim to have a great deal of knowledge about the AES while 26 percent say they know enough about it. Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, about the same percentages of those in Metro Manila and Class ABC either have enough or little knowledge as regards the AES (35 percdnt versus 33 percent and 36 percent versus 31 percent, respectively). In the rest of Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao, and Classes D and E, big pluralities to near majorities (36 percent to 47 percent) know little about the AES. 40 percent believe automated counting will lead to clean polls Two in five Filipinos (40 percent) think the automatic counting of votes will result in clean elections with credible results. Less than one of five (16 percent) hold the opposite view while 43 percent profess indecision regarding automation's possible effect on the forthcoming elections. Big pluralities to small majorities (47 percent to 54 percent) of those in Western Visayas and Mindanao, particularly Regions 9, 11, 12, and the ARMM, believe that the outcome of next year’s elections will be credible due to the automation of vote counting. Meanwhile, the prevailing public sentiment in Metro Manila, Central Visayas, Region 10 and Caraga, and Classes ABC and D is one of indecision (44 percent to 52 percent). In the rest of Luzon and Eastern Visayas, nearly the same percentages of respondents are either ambivalent on the matter or believe that automation of vote counting will make election results credible for the citizenry (40 percent to 49 percent versus 35 percent to 46 percent). On the other hand, a near majority of those in Class E (47 percent) is optimistic that the automation of vote counting will contribute to the credibility of election results. 52 percent say religious endorsement a boost Some 52 percent of Filipinos will "surely/probably" vote for a presidential candidate endorsed by their church, the survey showed. But 43 percent of Filipinos are surely/probably not voting for a presidential candidate endorsed by their church. The survey was conducted October 22 to 30, using face-to-face interviews with 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above. Pulse Asia said its nationwide survey has a +/- 2 percentage error margin at the 95 percent confidence level, error margins of +/- 6 percent for Metro Manila, +/-4 percent for the rest of Luzon and +/-5 percent for each of Visayas and Mindanao, at 95 percent confidence level. At the time the survey was made, developments dominating the news headlines were: the formal declaration of former President Joseph Estrada of his bid for the presidency in 2010 and questions about its legality; Senator Lorna Regina Legarda’s declaration of her plans for the May 2010 elections and Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno’s withdrawal from the vice-presidential race; Senator Francis Escudero’s departure from the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC); the search for a running mate by presidential bets Gilberto Teodoro Jr. and Senator Manuel Villar Jr.; late registrants catching the last days of registration for the May 2010 elections; the resignation of Public Works Secretary Hermogenes Ebdane Jr.; relief efforts in the aftermath of typhoons "Ondoy" and "Pepeng"; and the freeze on oil prices and other energy products, as well as basic commodities, imposed by the government. - LBG/KBK GMANews.TV