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Noynoy's consistent wide lead already a sign of victory - analyst


Unless he does something damaging to his political career, Benigno Simeon "Noynoy" Aquino III's consistent wide lead over his political opponents in several nationwide surveys is already a sure sign of his victory in the 2010 presidential polls, according to a political analyst. "Kung wala namang magiging malaking pagkakamali si Noynoy, mukhang hindi na ito magbabago. Hindi na ito puwedeng tawaging bugso ng damdamin. Lumilitaw sa survey na ito na may solid votes na talaga para sa kanya", Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms, told GMANews.TV on Tuesday. (If Noynoy will not commit any major blunder in the future, these survey results will remain unchanged until the 2010 polls. You can no longer call this an emotional outpouring anymore. This survey shows that Noynoy already has solid votes.) He said Aquino’s lead was already “very significant," which could already serve as shield to any form of electoral fraud that his opponents might employ against him in the coming polls. “Mahirap nang dayain ito. Kung baga sa basketball game, tambak na ‘yung kalaban at nag-uuwian na ‘yung audience sa point na ito," he said. (It's already difficult to cheat. It's like in the basketball game when opponents have already lost by a wide margin and the audience are about to go home.) Aquino, who joined the presidential race after the death of his mother, former President Corazon Aquino last August, got the nod of 46 percent of the respondents in a preference survey conducted by pollster Social Weather Stations (SWS) from December 5 to 10. The same SWS survey showed second-placer Sen. Manuel “Manny" Villar Jr. catching up on Aquino’s lead, with 27 percent or a seven percentage-point increase from his November preference rating. Villar, Erap's standing to improve Former President Joseph Estrada, who came in third place, also improved his current preferential rating to 16 percent, up four percentage points from November’s 12 percent. Despite Aquino’s lead, Estrada’s camp is still confident that the former president can still move on top of the surveys. “After President Estrada's filing of his candidacy, people who had been wondering whether or not he was a serious candidate now know that he is determined to make a comeback and are showing that they are ready to support President Estrada," Margaux Salcedo, Estrada’s spokesperson, told GMANews.TV on Tuesday via e-mail. Meanwhile, Nacionalista Party senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla is also optimistic that the survey ratings of Villar will continue improving. "It is the first time in SWS surveys that we have breached the 20-point differential. The remaining four and a half months will continue this trend and we see that it will be a very close race when May comes around," Remulla said in a text message to GMANews.TV Tuesday night. However, the only way to beat Aquino in the 2010 polls is for either Villar or Estrada to back out of the race and support the other's candidacy, according to Casiple. "Unless isa sa kanila ang hindi na tatakbo at susuportahan ang isa’t isa, mahirap nang matinag si Noynoy (Unless one of them bails out and support the other's candidacy, Noynoy will still remain unshaken until election day)," he said. - GMANews.TV

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