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Pollster: Noynoy keeps big lead, but Erap has most improved rating


As the May elections draw closer, Sen. Benigno Simeon "Noynoy" Aquino III has maintained a sizable lead among presidential bets but former president Joseph Estrada enjoyed the biggest increase in voter preference, a survey by Pulse Asia said. The survey it conducted from December 8 to 10 showed Aquino leading other candidates by a "wide margin," securing the support of 45 percent of voters. "Only two other contenders obtain double-digit support: Senator Manuel 'Manny' Villar Jr. (Nacionalista Party) with 23 percent and former President Joseph 'Erap' Estrada (Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino) with 19 percent. They are statistically tied for second place owing to the survey’s margin of error," it said. Compared to the Ulat ng Bayan survey in October 2009, support for Aquino "remains virtually unchanged," it added. But there was a significant improvement in voter preference for Estrada (eight percentage points, from 11 percent to 19 percent). Marginal increases in the support for Villar (+4 percentage points, from 19 percent to 23 percent) and Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard bearer Gilberto Teodoro Jr. (by three percentage points, from two to five percent) were also reported. The survey showed Aquino getting majority support among voters in the Visayas (52 percent) and near majority support from the well-off ABC socio-economic class (SECs). "His electoral preference is basically at the same level across the other areas and socio-economic classes – NCR, Balance Luzon (Luzon minus Metro Manila), Mindanao and SECs D and E," Pulse Asia said. In the survey, 27 percent of Filipinos said they opted for a particular candidate because he/she cared for the poor, while 21 percent cited a candidate’s being not corrupt or having a clean record. "The belief that a candidate is a good person (12 percent), can/is doing/will do something (11 percent) and helps/is helping others (11 percent) constitute the other reasons for respondents’ presidential preferences," it said. Roxas, Legarda tied In the vice presidential race, the survey showed Sen. Manuel Roxas II and Senator Lorna Regina Legarda lead in voter preference. Pulse Asia said both Roxas and Legarda are "statistically tied" – with each obtaining support from close to four out of ten Filipinos. Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) ranks second with 14 percent. "If the elections were held at the time of the survey, Senator Roxas would get a majority of votes in the Visayas (58 percent), while Senator Legarda would have a plurality of the votes from Balance Luzon (43 percent). The two front-runners register the same level of support (41 percent) among Mindanao voters and essentially the same support from the D and E socio-economic classes. Sen. Roxas, however, obtains near-majority support from the relatively well-off socio-economic class ABC," Pulse Asia said. Pulse Asia added that Legarda is the only vice presidential candidate who registers a significant change in voter preference (a gain of 14 percentage points) since October 2009. 7 of 10 Pinoys have incomplete senatorial lineup Only three of 10 Filipinos have a complete set of senatorial bets in their list. In August, 57 percent of Filipinos had a complete senatorial lineup of 12 candidates. This percentage declined to 40 percent in October 2009, and settled to 31 percent last December. "While Filipinos were naming a mean of 10 and a median of 12 favored prospective candidates in August 2009, the mean and median are down to eight at present," Pulse Asia said. 14 senatorial bets' winning chance Fourteen of some 80 senatorial candidates named in the survey have a statistical chance of winning, with Senate President Pro Tempore Jose "Jinggoy" Estrada topping the list. Estrada's overall voter preference stands at 55.1 percent, which translates to a statistical ranking of first to third places. Following closely is Senator Ramon Revilla Jr. (52.7 percent) who is ranked first to fourth, a ranking shared by Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (51.4 percent). Former Senate President Franklin Drilon (48.4 percent) is at second to fourth places, while tied for fifth to ninth places are Senator Pilar Juliana Cayetano (43.1 percent), former National Economic and Development Authority Director-General Ralph Recto (43.1 percent), Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (42.7 percent), and former senators Sergio Osmeña III and Vicente Sotto III (both with 40.2 percent). Ilocos Norte Representative Ferdinand “Bongbong" Marcos Jr. (31 percent) and Bukidnon Representative Teofisto Guingona III (28.6 percent) are tied for the 10th to 11th places. Rounding up the list of probable winners are Jose “Joey" De Venecia III (24.3 percent), Senator Manuel “Lito" Lapid (23.1 percent), and Muntinlupa Rep. Rozzano Rufino “Ruffy" Biazon (22.9 percent), who are tied for 12th to 14th places. "All of the probable winners if the elections were held early December 2009 record improvements in their electoral preference," Pulse Asia said. It added that Revilla and Enrile show the largest improvements of 16.1 percent. The survey was conducted December 8 to 10 using face-to-face interviews. Developments that dominated news headlines at the time included the declaration of Martial Law in Maguindanao; convening of Congress to review the declaration of martial law in Maguindanao; filing of cases in the Supreme Court to nullify Martial Law; the clash between Ampatuan supporters and police in Maguindanao; the unseating of Bulacan Governor Mendoza and Isabela Governor Padaca by the Commission on Elections; and the disqualification cases filed against President Arroyo. The survey used a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults and had a +/- 2 percent error margin at the 95 percent confidence level. The December 2009 survey had 15 names included in the roster of presidential and vice presidential contenders and 80 names for the list of senatorial candidates. The names were based on the official report of the Commission on Elections (Comelec) on those who filed their Certificates of Candidacy (COC) as of midnight of December 1, 2009. Those who were nominated by registered national political parties (i.e., Bayan Muna, Kapatiran, Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, Lakas-Kampi-CMD, Liberal Party, Nacionalista Party, Nationalist People’s Coalition, PDP-Laban, Promdi, Philippine Green Republican Party, Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) or who have been allowed to run or have held national elective positions were automatically included in the lists (for presidential, vice presidential, and senatorial candidates). The additional names were drawn randomly from among those who remained in the official list of the Comelec. - LBG, RJAB Jr./ GMANews.TV

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