Philippine political landscape remains unpredictable, analysts say

Three months is an eternity, especially in Philippine politics. Just ask allies and supporters of Senator Benigno Simeon “Noynoy" Aquino, who until recently, was the country’s leading presidential candidate. In October, Aquino’s Pulse Asia poll rating was 44 points, 25 points higher than his closest rival, fellow senator Manuel Villar Jr., whose rating was 19. Now, three months later, things have changed dramatically.

Aquino and Villar are now tied, statistically speaking, a non-commissioned poll undertaken this January said. January’s poll said Aquino’s lead over Villar has been whittled down to just two points – a 92 percent plunge – 37 to 35 in only two months. With a two percent margin of error, the survey places both presidential bets on equal footing. These results only reflect the Philippines’ unpredictable political landscape, analysts interviewed by GMANews.TV said. Cory magic wearing off? The so-called Cory Magic that fuelled Aquino’s presidential bid could be wearing off, Ateneo de Manila University political science professor Benito Lim told GMANews.TV. “Kahit gamitin ni Noynoy ang imahe ng mga magulang niya, may wearing-off na rin kasi," Lim said. (Noynoy may always refer to his parents’ image, but the effect of that is wearing off.) Calls for Aquino to run for president was the public’s “emotional response" after his mother died in August 2009, Pulse Asia research fellow Ana Maria Tabunda also said. But if Aquino sought to sustain his lead, Tabunda suggested that he devise an alternative. “Alam naman nating lahat na ang taas-taas ng voter preference (kay Noynoy) noong kamamatay lang (ni Cory). Malaking bagay yung emotional response, kaya kailangan ipakita niya (Noynoy) iyong mga pina-plano niya," Tabunda said in an interview on GMA’s Unang Hirit on Thursday. (We all know that voter preference for Noynoy was high after his mother died. Emotional response was a big factor for that. But now, Noynoy needs to bare his plans for the future)
Noynoy’s loss is Villar’s gain? Another political analyst observed that Aquino needs to transform his advertising strategies since all these contained references to his parents. The first featured major celebrities including his sister, celebrity Kris Aquino, in a music video sung by Regine Velasquez. The second showed a somber Noynoy, promising that he would not steal while the third – and most recent one – was livelier, even showing the candidate rapping. In the meantime, Villar’s advertisements – one that featured Comedy King Dolphy and another that showed various sectors giving Villar their “Check!" or approval – constantly bombarded the airwaves. A Villar ad featuring a “Dagat ng Basura" (Ocean of Trash) jingle continues to be popular despite being ridiculed by rivals’ supporters. Villar’s promoters also took advantage of billboard ads, ensuring the candidate’s pervasive presence along the country’s main thoroughfares. Aquino told to divert from negative campaigning To counter Villar’s presence, Institute of Political and Electoral Reform executive director Ramon Casiple said Aquino needs to change his approach to the public, focus more on his strengths, and divert from negative campaigning. “Nagpahina sa kaniya yung negative campaign. Yung sinasabi niyang hindi siya magnanakaw, hindi siya katulad ni GMA (President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo). Pero ang tinitingnan din ng tao ay iyong kaya niyang gawin, yung focus ay sa kaniya mismo," Casiple said. This sentiment is echoed by Lim, who said that Noynoy “needs to reinvent himself," added Lim. In the Unang Hirit interview, Tabunda also attributed Villar’s improved survey performance to his prevalent ads. Consistent airing of these same ads – which may have been part of the Nacionalista Party’s strategy – was also undertaken to counter effects of reports that Villar amassed profits from the C-5 road project. On the impact of C-5 controversy Pulse Asia conducted its latest survey from January 22 to 26, while Villar was in the thick of a controversy that said he unduly used his influence to have the C-5 Road Extension project rerouted through his properties in Las Piñas and Parañaque cities. But for Aquino’s Liberal Party, it still remains too early to say whether the C-5 scandal implicating Villar affected voter preferences. Casiple agrees. “It has not seeped yet so much into the public consciousness," he said, adding that he could not yet say whether the increase in Villar’s ratings could be attributed to Filipinos’ known sympathy for underdogs. Tabunda also said Pulse Asia could not yet completely conclude whether the C-5 controversy helped pull up Villar’s ratings. “Puwede sa ibang botante, na-factor in na iyon. Puweden sa iba, medyo matagal pa (Other voters might have that factored in already, while it might take a longer time for others)," she said. But Villar’s Nacionalista Party believes otherwise. “It’s pretty clear that the people have made up their minds that the C-5 probe in the Senate is nothing but politics," said House of Representatives minority floor leader Rep. Ronaldo Zamora, a Villar ally. “We expect more black propaganda to come and this is something that we have to prepare [for] and we are prepared for it." Casiple, however, said he was skeptical of Noynoy’s slump and Villar’s meteoric rise. “There really has to be a cataclysmic political event for a major shift like that," he said, adding that the C-5 controversy and the issue on Hacienda Luisita against Aquino were “not cataclysmic enough." Nevertheless, Casiple said survey results, while giving a glimpse of the political climate, do not always turn out to be conclusive. “Politics is always changing. We can never really know until Election Day," he added. - RJAB Jr., GMANews.TV