Pulse Asia: Noynoy ahead anew as Villar ratings drop

(Updated 12:22 p.m.) Less than three months before the May 10 elections, Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III has regained the top spot among presidential candidates in Pulse Asia's latest survey as the ratings of his closest rival, Senator Manuel Villar Jr., dropped by 6 percentage points. The biggest gainer, however, was former President Joseph Estrada, whose ratings improved by 6 percentage points. Estrada remained at third place with 18 percent. Based on its survey conducted from February 21 to 25, Pulse Asia said Aquino's rating of 36 percent was "virtually unchanged" from 37 percent in January. On the other hand, Villar's rating dropped from 35 percent in January to 29 percent based on the latest survey results. (Refer to Table 1) The latest survey's margin of error was ±2 percent, with a total of 1,800 adults as respondents. In the firm's January presidential voter preference survey, Aquino and Villar shared the top spot with 37 and 35 percent, respectively. The survey also had a ±2 margin of error. [See: Aquino, Villar neck and neck in latest Pulse Asia survey] Gibo, Perlas ratings also improve It was not only Estrada whose ratings improved. In the latest Pulse Asia survey, administration bet Gilbert Teodoro's ratings went up by 2 percentage points (from 5 per cent in January to 7 percent in February), while environmentalist Nicanor Perlas's ratings moved by 0.15 percentage point (now 0.2 percent from 0.05 percent in January). Meanwhile, like in its January survey, 6 percent of the respondents said they have yet to decide on their presidential preference or have no preferred candidate in the upcoming elections. In the latest survey, Aquino was also the most preferred candidate in Metro Manila (40 percent) and Mindanao (38 percent), as well as among the upper socioeconomic classes or those in the A, B, and C class, as well as the D class. However, Aquino shared the lead with Villar in Visayas and among the poorest class. (Refer to Table 2) Asked why they would be voting for their preferred candidates, 26 percent of the respondents said their reason was because their candidates were not corrupt, while 22 percent said their candidates cared for the poor. Allegations Political analyst Benito Lim, a political science professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the C-5 controversy and allegations that Villar is the secret candidate of the Arroyo administration may have affected Villar's ratings. [See: The C5 extension controversy: an interactive map] "Baka yung charges na yan dumikit, medyo nasira si Villar diyan (Those charges may have stuck to Villar, thus somewhat negatively affecting his image)," Lim said in a phone interview with GMANews.TV. However, the people representing the 6 percentage points scrapped off Villar's ratings didn't shift their support to Aquino because Villar and Aquino have different support bases, Lim said. According to the political analyst, Aquino and Teodoro both enjoy wide support among the youth and the A, B, and C classes. Villar, Estrada, Richard Gordon, and other presidential aspirants, meanwhile, are being considered mostly by people at least in their 30s, and by the masses. When some of Villar's supporters were turned off by the allegations against him, they shifted to Estrada instead of Aquino — and this explains Estrada's 6 percentage point-rise, Lim said. Aquino's 1-percent drop, meanwhile, likely went to Teodoro because they have the same support base, Lim said. "Kung nagbabatuhan sila ng putik, si Noynoy at Villar halimbawa, pag nasiraan si Villar, yung mga boto ng ayaw kay Villar pupunta kay Erap (When [the candidates] throw mud at each other, for example if Noynoy and Villar do that and Villar's image is affected, those who don't want Villar anymore will shift to Erap)," Lim said. He said Villar supporters chose to shift to Estrada because the former president is the candidate most likely to win next to Aquino and Villar according to presidential preference surveys. Black propaganda, not working LP campaign manager Florencio "Butch" Abad also attributed Villar's drop to the C-5 controversy and to his alleged association with President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. "His huge unprecedented spending in television ads as well as his unrelenting black propaganda against Noynoy are not working against the fact that people are beginning to believe that this whole C5 scam which is now being seen in many parts of the country is gaining traction among many of the voters," Abad told GMANews.TV in a phone interview. "Voters are beginning to see that it is very dangerous for an official like Villar to be entrusted with such a powerful position because if you had been able to do this as a congressman and as a Senate president how much more if as president," Abad added. Abad also said "people are beginning to see" Villar's "increasing association" with President Arroyo because the Nacionalista Party standard bearer had been "very silent" on corruption issues hounding the Arroyo administration. By contrast, Aquino dropped by only 1 percentage point because the LP responded "very agressively and factually" to controversies involving Aquino such as the supposed SCTEx anomaly, Abad said. [See: The SCTEx issue] Senate appearance The survey period came several weeks after Villar appeared in the Senate for the first time since the Senate report on the C5 controversy came out. Villar defended himself from accusations that his corporations benefited from the road extension project. His appearance on February 2 came hours after the Pulse Asia released its January voter preference survey results where Aquino and Villar shared the top spot with 37 and 35 percent, respectively. The survey also had a ±2 margin of error. On the latest Social Weather Station survey released in January, Aquino also edged out Villar in a one-on-one scenario with 52 percent of the 2,100 respondents choosing the son of former President Corazon Aquino over the former Senate president. Apart from Villar's Senate appearance, other election-related issues that dominated the media in the weeks leading up to the conduct of the latest Pulse Asia survey included the start of the campaign period on February 9. On February 11, the Supreme Court also junked the petition to nullify the P7.2-billion poll automation deal between the Commission on Elections and Smartmatic-TIM. The survey period was also on the same week the high court reversed an earlier decision and ruled that appointed government officials are deemed resigned if they were running in the May polls. Roxas maintains lead Meanwhile, survey results for the vice presidential race remained "virtually unchanged," according to Pulse Asia, with LP bet Manuel "Mar" Roxas II remaining on top despite suffering a 4-percentage point dip, bigger than any of his rivals. The ratings of Villar's runningmate, Senator Loren Legarda, went down by 1 percentage point from 28 percent in January to 27 percent in the latest survey. The ratings of Estrada and Gordon's respective running mates - Jejomar Binay and Bayani Fernando - both went up by 2 percentage points. - with Johanna Camille Sisante/RSJ, GMANews.TV