All eyes on Isabela for Dy vs Padaca rematch

Will Faustino Dy III from Isabela's powerful dynasty finally reclaim the gubernatorial post taken away from his family? Or will Grace Padaca remain governor in what many consider one of the nation's most exciting local election races? Considered the most charming among the Dys, the 48-year-old Faustino III has consistently won his political battles since he followed in the footsteps of his father, Faustino Sr, 30 years ago. Now in his last term as congressman, he will try to reclaim the gubernatorial post that his family held for 34 years before losing it to Padaca in 2004. Faustino III, or Bojie to his close friends, said he never planned to run for governor nor did his family intend to field any of their relatives to regain the post. His wife Ann even thought they could finally start a life free from politics. “Akala ko magnenegosyo na kami, magbabaksyon na kami, hindi pala (I thought we would go into business or go on vacation. I thought wrong)," she said. Last-minute consultations with mayors changed the game plan, disclosed Isabela (first district) Rep. Rodito Albano—who was supposedly the Dys’ candidate for governor before he slid down to the vice-gubernatorial race. After holding meetings with local executives, Albano said he found out that the mayors preferred Bojie to lead. The Dys and Albanos are two of the most powerful clans in the province.

Destiny? The turn of events has made the 2010 gubernatorial race reminiscent of the 2001 polls when Padaca first challenged Bojie—and lost—in a hotly-contested congressional race for Isabela’s third district. “It’s destiny," said Bojie, exuding confidence that he would win this year. “Natalo ko na siya noon, matatalo ko ulit siya ngayon (I beat her once, I can beat her again this time)." Padaca, a former radio broadcaster who was later ushered into the state capitol with a victory in the 2004 elections, is unfazed. “Siya ang dapat mag-worry. Babangon ako at dudurugin ko siya (He should be the one to worry. I’ll rise up and crush him)," she said, mimicking a line from a popular Filipino movie. The Dys are just “desperate" to return to power since “politics [has become their] bread and butter," she said. Bojie, a former mayor of Cauayan City, has received various citations for leadership including Outstanding Mayor awards. Padaca, for her part, has been recognized for her role in reducing Isabela’s perennial problems, which include illegal logging, jueteng, and practices associated with patronage politics. Padaca, a Ramon Magasaysay awardee for good governance, has been hailed for ending the Dy clan’s three-decade monopoly in the province by defeating Bojie’s brothers, Gov. Faustino Jr. and Benjamin, in the 2004 and 2007 gubernatorial elections, respectively. Political analysts said Padaca, who was then a radio commentator on dzNC (Bombo Radyo Cauayan), won in the two consecutive polls by banking on her name recognition and reputation as a broadcaster and her promise to reform traditional politics in the province. According to provincial administrator Paul Fernandez, Padaca during her two three-year terms was able to pay nearly 90 percent of the multi-million debt that the Dys incurred under their leadership. She was also able to help corn and rice farmers increase their income by using government funds to subsidize the buying program of the National Food Authority, Fernandez added. Whether or not she did her job well, Padaca said the electorate would judge her once they cast their votes on May 10. Bojie, for his part, expressed certainty that he will beat Padaca, claiming that her constituents are already fed up with her “propaganda" against his family and are now yearning for real government service. “Malaki ang kasalanan ni Grace sa mga tao (Grace has grossly wronged the people)," he said, providing as an example Padaca’s allegedly having dropped the free health care services that his family used to provide for their constituents. But Fernandez, who is also known as Padaca's little governor, countered by saying that the health program of her predecessor was "not sustainable" and only benefited "selected people who are close to the powers that be." "The ordinary people were not able to avail of any of these," said Fernandez. ‘All eyes should be on Isabela’ Three political analysts said the Faustino III-Padaca 2010 match has acquired a dramatic color since its results may become symbolic of the country’s political history by validating the demand for what an analyst calls “reform politics." “This will show the political maturity of the voters there," said Dean Alex Brillantes of the UP National College of Public Administration and Governance (NCPAG). “If Padaca wins, it will show that the people really want a new breed of politics, which in turn might encourage traditional politicians to change their style of patronage leadership." Dr. Antonio Laviña of the Ateneo School of Government agreed with Brillantes, saying the polls would “prove or disprove the idea that reform politics, as exemplified by Gov. Padaca, could win against traditional politics as manifested by the Dy-Albano alliance." “That would be exciting to watch as it also means something good for the country," he said. When Padaca toppled the Dys, it sent a message across the country that people are seeking a new type of leadership. Should Padaca lose in this election, Brillantes said, her two consecutive victories would still be enough to prove that a well-entrenched political family could be beaten. Nonetheless, political science professor Benito Lim of the Ateneo de Manila University warned that while the Dys have been out of the provincial capitol for six years, their political muscle has remained firm. According to Lim, since the family had controlled the province for so long, many people in Isabela have incurred debts of gratitude to them. These could be translated into votes come election time. The same applies to Padaca since she has been holding office for six years, which is already equivalent to a president’s term of office, he said. “Both Padaca and the Dys should work extra hard. There is nothing certain in this election battle so I think they should not underestimate each other," Laviña added. Both camps began to reintroduce themselves to the electorate even before the campaign period for local elections officially kicks off on March 26. In a government-issued pamphlet on the El Niño phenomenon, for example, Padaca included a column entitled “Sino ang mga tunay at matagal nang salbahe (Who are the real villains)," where she replied to her detractor’s allegations against her. Dy, for his part, claimed that he is not preparing too much for the upcoming May polls. However, tarpaulin billboards bearing his and running mate Albano’s image and salutations ranging from yuletide greetings to Happy Valentines Day have been seen all over Isabela. Not the end of Dys Political analyst Ramon Casiple expressed doubts if Padaca could really end the Dys’ political dominance even if she wins in May, as many of their family members still hold key positions in the local government. (See table below) Given the Dys’ extensive political machinery, Casiple said, the least that Padaca could do is to ensure that she maintain her connection with her political base at the grassroots level and that her supporters will not be bought. “Being an incumbent gives Grace a better chance to win than her rival, but only a slight advantage, in the context of a formidable presence of the Dys in many parts of Isabela," Laviña added. Once Padaca is out of office, the next elections in Isabela would be more exciting to watch, said Casiple, since all the traditional politicians who formed an “alliance of convenience" against Padaca as their common rival would by then go against each other instead. “Kaya kailangan niyang siguraduhin na may credible siyang kandidato na pwedeng pumalit sa kanya (So she has to ensure that she develops a credible candidate who can succeed her)," he said. Laviña and Brillantes dismissed notions that the Dys are bad people. Brillantes, who stayed with the Dys while doing his masters’ degree during the 1970s, said that although the family practiced traditional patronage politics, their clan members are "very kind and very accommodating." "The Dys are a big, strong family. I actually consider many of them good people that also mean well for their province," Laviña said. "But like all political families, they need to modernize and renew themselves." Brillantes said he is hoping that the results of the upcoming May elections would serve as an eye-opener for all the political clans—that they need to transform themselves because the electorate no longer welcomes patronage politics, unlike 30 years ago. Last election Win or lose, Padaca vowed that this will be her last gamble in politics. If she wins, she said, it would mean the real end of the Dys’ political dominance, and that her constituents are ready for new faces to lead their province. In case she loses, she added, she would be disappointed that her efforts to introduce reforms in political leadership would go to waste. She warned that once the Dys are allowed go back to the capitol, they will ensure that they will never be unseated again. Padaca also claimed that problems like jueteng and illegal logging would resurface once the political clan’s control of the top political post is restored. Bojie, on the other hand, declined to make a commitment that this would be his last electoral race whether he wins or loses. “Hindi ko naisip na matatalo ako (I haven’t entertained the thought that I’d lose)," he said. "I will beat her through the majority vote."—JV/HS, GMANews.TV