1 out of 2 Pinoys expect people power if May polls fail–SWS survey

One out of every two Filipino voters nationwide expect another people power uprising should the May elections fail, with the number going up in many areas compared to October last year, results of a recent survey showed. In a pre-election survey conducted nationwide by pollster Social Weather Stations among 2,100 registered voters from February 24 to 28, the number of respondents in Metro Manila, Visayas and Mindanao who expect people to take to the streets if the automated elections fail rose by as much as 7%, compared to a similar survey done in October last year. The highest increase was in the Visayas, from 38% to 45%. In Mindanao, 46% of the respondents expected people power, up from 40% in October. The figure for Metro Manila also went up to 57% from 54%. For the rest of Luzon, however, the number of respondents who expect people power to happen went down to 49%, from 58% last October. But the total figure for the whole country remained high at 48%, which is similar to the 49% recorded in the October survey. The SWS survey posed the test statement “If the 2010 elections fail for any reason, e.g., malfunctioning of counting machines, then people power will probably happen already [Kung mabigo ang eleksyon sa 2010 sa anumang dahilan, halimbawa, kapalpakan ng mga makinang pambilang ng boto, malamang magkakaroon na ng people power o ang pagprotesta ng napakaraming mamamayan sa kalye]." To this statement, 48% of the 2,100 registered voters interviewed agreed while 21% disagreed, for a net agreement score of +28%, the same as the +28% registered in October, according to the SWS. On May this year, the Philippines is set to automate the counting of votes of over 50 million registered voters for the first time. But problems encountered by the Commission on Elections has triggered a whole range of worries about the automation scheme among political parties, candidates, poll watchdog groups, media, and civic groups. Fears of election sabotage remain high The February SWS survey results also showed that the number of people who fear that the vote-counting machines can easily be sabotaged to change the election’s outcome remains high, although it slightly went down in Luzon and for class ABC. The survey posted the test statement “The machines that will be used to count the votes in the 2010 election can easily be sabotaged in order to fake the election results [Ang mga makinang gagamitin sa pambilang ng boto sa eleksyon sa 2010 ay madaling masabotahe para dayain ang resulta ng eleksyon]." To this statement, 46% of the respondents nationwide agreed and 25% disagreed, for a net agreement score of +21 points, up from +18 from the October survey. Net agreement to the statement rose the highest in Mindanao by 35 points, from -9 (33% agree, 41 % disagree) to +26 (47% agree, 21% disagree); and by 5 points in the Visayas, from +10 (37% agree, 27% disagree) to +15 (45% agree, 29% disagree). However, it fell by 21 points in Metro Manila, from +33 (56% agree, 23% disagree) to +12 (44% agree, 32% disagree; and by 8 points for the rest of Luzon from +31 (55% agree, 24% disagree) to +23 (46% agree, 23% disagree). By class, net agreement score went up by 16 points in class E, from +6 (40% agree, 34% disagree) to +22 (43% agree, 21% disagree). It decreased by 12 points in class ABC, from +24 (45% agree, 20% disagree) to +12 (42% agree, 29% disagree; and by 2 points in class D, from +23 (50% agree, 27% disagree) to +21 (47% agree, 25% disagree). Increased trust in Comelec On the other hand, trust in the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to guard against sabotage registered a significant improvement in all areas and classes. Net agreement to the statement “The Comelec can be trusted to make sure that there is no sabotage of the machines to be used to count the votes in 2010 election [Ang COMELEC ay mapagkakatiwalaan na siguraduhin na hindi masasabotahe ang mga makinang gagamitin sa pagbilang ng boto sa eleksyon sa 2010]," soared by 30 points, from +16 (44% agree, 28% disagree) in October to +46 (58% agree and 12% disagree) in the most recent survey. Net agreement was highest in the Visayas at 38 points from +12 (37% agree, 25% disagree) to +50 (61% agree, 11% disagree), followed by areas in Luzon outside Metro Manila at 30 points from +18 (47% agree, 29% disagree) to +48 (59% agree, 12% disagree) In class E, it went up by 35 points in class E, from +12 (41% agree, 30% disagree) to +47 (56% agree, 9% disagree); and by 30 points in class D, from +16 (45% agree, 28% disagree) to +46 (59% agree, 14% disagree). Counting seen to be more accurate The survey also revealed that 82% expect the counting of votes by machine to be more accurate compared to previous elections. Meanwhile, 81%, or four out of five voters believe the new system of voting will be easier compared to the old system, with 55% saying it will be “much easier" and 26% “somewhat easier". About 93% likewise said they are aware of the Comelec plan to count votes using machines, while the rest said they heard about it only during the interview. For those who have prior knowledge of the automated counting, their top sources of information are television, radio, and friends and relatives. Some 62% also said they have prior experience in filling forms by shading, similar to the new system in this year’s elections, while 38% said they have no experience. The survey, conducted from February 24 to 28, used face-to-face interviews of 2,100 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 in Metro Manila and 600 each in other areas in Luzon, and in the Visayas and Mindanao. It has an error margin of +/-2.2% for national percentages. According to the SWS, the October 2009 and February 2010 survey items on public anxiety bout the automated elections were non-commissioned. The February survey items on voters’ awareness of the machine-counting of votes, experience of filling forms by shading, and the expected ease and accuracy of the automated elections were sponsored by The Asia Foundation, it added. ‘There’s basis to apprehensions’ Political analyst Professor Bobby Tuazon of the University of the Philippines-based Center for People Empowerment in Governance said there is a basis for the people’s anticipation of a people power revolt should the elections fail. “Many people are looking forward to fair and transparent elections to install a new president. If the elections fail, either due to technology or deliberate plans to make them fail, that is tantamount to sabotaging the sovereign will of the people expressed through voting," he explained. He added that doubts about the vote-counting machines being fool-proof will naturally be heightened especially in election hotspots like Mindanao. Liberal Party campaign manager Florencio “Butch" Abad meanwhile said that people’s fears are fueled by the apparent lack of preparation by the Comelec to automate the elections. “We really hope the Comelec will have the ability to prevent sabotage of machines. But ability is different from really intending to prevent it. There may be other more powerful people beyond Comelec who have plans of committing fraud," Abad said. For his part, Nacionalista Party spokesperson and senatorial candidate Adel Tamano said that amid concerns about the automation, people will have to trust the Comelec. He added that the agency’s leadership now is “much better" than before. “A lesson we could get here is that people are unwilling to accept a failure of elections. This sends a strong message to the Comelec to get their act together, and also for the candidates to be vigilant and help in making the elections successful," he explained.—JV, GMANews.TV