Ex-official: Failed polls could beget ‘indefinite’ Arroyo rule

Former Ombudsman Simeon Marcelo, who served under the Arroyo administration, on Tuesday said outgoing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, if elected to the House of Representatives, has a big chance of becoming prime minister and indefinitely staying in power in case national elections fail. In a press conference, Marcelo said Mrs. Arroyo’s allies at the House of Representatives could install her as Speaker, turn themselves into a constituent body, and vote for a shift into a parliamentary system where she can become prime minister. "Of course there is a danger [that] they can convene themselves as a constituent body... and propose [a] constitutional amendment [shifting] from [a] presidential [form of government] to parliament. A plebiscite is needed for that, but I don't think that will happen. People are very vigilant these days," he said.
The President is seeking a congressional seat to represent the second district of her home province of Pampanga. The worst-case scenario, Marcelo said, is if elections fail and no President and Vice-President are installed by June 30. The 1987 Constitution provides that in case no President and Vice-President are elected, qualified, or if both die or become permanently disabled, the Senate president will take over or, in case of his inability, the Speaker of the House will do so until a President or a Vice-President is chosen. Marcelo explained, however, that an election failure might also result in a leadership vacuum if a new Senate president or House Speaker is not chosen. The terms of Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile and Speaker Prospero C. Nograles will end on June 30. In that scenario, he said, the Constitution provides that a law on succession will determine who will become President. “Unfortunately, [after] 23 years since the passage of the 1987 Constitution, no [such] law was passed," Marcelo said, adding that Senator Miriam Santiago had proposed such bill in 2007, but it had not been prioritized. Marcelo said, Mrs. Arroyo could stay as acting head of state for an "indefinite" time. The Supreme Court, whose 14 out of 15 justices are Arroyo appointees, would be the one to rule on the legitimacy of any holdover President, he added. Such "accidents of history," said the former ombudsman, could be exploited by those who have the opportunity and motive to sabotage the elections. He declined to name the people he thought were behind the plan. Holdover Former Chief Justice Artemio Panganiban concurred, saying Mrs. Arroyo would temporarily take over in case elections fail. "President Arroyo would be the holdover President and whether that is legal or not… will be determined by the Supreme Court," Panganiban told GMA Network’s 24 Oras newscast. Marcelo also raised the possibility of a military takeover in case of a power vacuum. The Armed Forces chief of staff, General Delfin Bangit, is an Arroyo appointee who also served as chief of the Presidential Security Group. Christian Monsod, one of the framers of the 1987 Constitution, disagreed. "I think the case will not go to the Supreme Court because the military will not support a holdover President...[and] because there is a Senate president who will become acting President by June 30 — if it’s not [Senator Enrile] then will be another senator whose term does not end on June 30," Monsod said. Senate President and reelectionist Juan Ponce Enrile earlier downplayed a failure of elections as an “extreme possibility." (See: Enrile: I will convene Congress in same week if elections fail) During a debate on Unang Hirit on Monday, he assured the public that he would immediately convene Congress not later than May 14 so a proper succession could be followed. He said he could relinquish his seat as Senate President to a colleague whose term will not end until 2013. Asked if he thinks Mrs. Arroyo wants to stay in power forever, Marcelo said: “It’s human nature once you taste something good, you’d want to have it forever. But I don’t know about her." Malacañang, for its part, allayed fears and reiterated that President Arroyo would step down once her term ends. "Matiwasay natin isasalin ang panguluhan o ang kapangyarihan ng Malacañang sa susunod na [presidenteng] ihahalal ng bansa (We will peacefully turn over the presidency or the power of Malacañang to the next President elected by the nation)," deputy presidential spokesman Rogelio Peyuan said. Marcelo, who heads the Philippine Bar Association, was a private litigator before he became Ombudsman. He was the main private prosecutor in the impeachment case against then President Joseph Estrada in 2000. In February 2001, after Estrada was toppled by a popular street uprising, he was appointed solicitor general. In October 2002, Marcelo became the country’s third and youngest-ever Ombudsman, a position he held until he resigned in 2005 for health reasons. Marcelo said it is hard to think that an election failure would not be orchestrated given problems plaguing preparations for the automated polls. "Habang lumalapit yung elections padami nang padami yung kapalpakan ng Comelec [Commission on Elections] kaya nagdududa ka (As the elections approach, the Comelec’s blunders pile up so you have doubts)," he said. Among the problems cited by the Philippine Bar Association are malfunctioning precinct count optical scan (PCOS) machines, the lack of an independent source code review, delayed printing of ballots and alleged anomalies indelible ink and ballot secrecy folder supply contracts. The group has also cited unreliable logistics firms, and the lack of transparency in vote canvassing, contingency and continuity plans, an effective voter’s education campaign, and a legal framework in case elections fail. Manual count Marcelo called on election commissioners to prove that they are not part of the alleged conspiracy by adopting his group’s proposal for a parallel manual counting at precincts nationwide. The Bar, in a letter to the poll body, suggested that votes cast for President, Vice-President, House members, governor and mayor be manually counted before electronic poll results are transmitted to canvassing centers. Marcelo said they chose the five positions so the process becomes manageable. He also noted that while a separate manual counting would take longer, it would ensure that the results transmitted by the precinct count optical scan (PCOS) machines represent the "true will of the people." Comelec Chairman Jose Melo said they would review the proposal. "This is the last defense against poll fraud," Marcelo said, adding, that "pag hindi nila (Comelec) tinanggap, talagang kasali sila (if they do not accept it, then they must be part of the plot)." — Aie Balagtas See/JV/NPA, GMANews.TV