PAGASA forecasters lacked training — Angara

Lack of training among its forecasters is the biggest problem facing the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), officials told a Senate committee hearing on Thursday. Manila Observatory Regional Climate Studies Project head Dr. Mariano Estoque said the one-year training that one has to undergo to become state weather forecasters is not enough. “Forecasting is a very difficult subject. They (forecasters) need a lot of formal training and experience," Estoque told the Senate committee on science and technology. PAGASA Administrator Dr. Graciano Yumul, Jr. said they hire engineering and science graduates who would be trained at PAGASA for one year before they become state forecasters. Estoque noted that the US National Hurricane Center requires its forecasters to at least have a master’s degree or even a doctoral degree in the field. Senator Edgardo Angara, the head of the committee, proposed to have the training for forecasters start from the undergraduate level. “Training, that's the biggest gap," he told reporters after the hearing. This was echoed by Estoque, who said the state weather forecasters’ lack of training has been hampering PAGASA’s operations. In July, PAGASA received a mouthful from President Benigno Aquino III after it failed to predict that tropical cyclone Basyang would pass by Metro Manila. This resulted to the sacking of veteran forecaster Prisco Nilo as PAGASA administrator. Estoque said if state forecasters had used the Doppler radar “intelligently," they could have seen that Basyang was heading toward Metro Manila. A Doppler radar is a specialized radar that makes use of the doppler effect to produce velocity data about objects at a distance “[If] the forecasters have enough knowledge, they should have examined the wind pressures in Infanta [Quezon]. Looking at those, they could have found out that the cyclone was going westward to Manila," Estoque said. Nilo, who was also present during the hearing, defended their prediction, saying climate change has been affecting the behavior of weather disturbances, making them difficult to predict. He, however, agreed that PAGASA forecasters need to be “exposed" to advanced forecasting techniques being utilized by other countries. He suggested that these forecasters undergo trainings funded by United States and Japan. Equipment, facilities Aside from training, Angara said that it is their priority to provide funding for the 10 additional buoys needed by PAGASA. He said these buoys would be positioned in key channels to monitor the height and speed of the ocean current. “That is important for navigation and predicting rains, for changes," he said. Angara said the buoys would cost P32 million to P33 million, although they can be locally manufactured for only P3 million to P5 million. “We can manufacture and fabricate many of the equipment that we need in the Philippines," he said. Angara, however, noted that the accuracy of forecasts would still depend on the skills of the forecasters. “We just want our government scientists to operate with modern equipment and get current, modern training," he said. The senator said they are also looking into the possibility of building a basin to ease the flooding in Metro Manila. He said the project would need a funding of P200 million. He also said that they are mulling the possibility of creating a non-partisan and career institution that will oversee the risk management, education, training, and modernization of PAGASA. He said that it will be different from the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), which was organized to cope with disasters that have already happened. “The institution that we have discussed... is one that will look into the science of risk management, global trends," Angara said. — KBK/RSJ, GMANews.TV