MILF: Peace talks may be over in 1 year, depending on gov’t sincerity

Peace efforts between government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front may be over in a year’s time if government is serious about the talks, the MILF said Saturday. MILF peace panel secretariat head Jun Mantawil said one agenda is left for discussion by the parties, and should not take "three to four" years. “It can be over in one or less than one year time frame ... If the Aquino administration is engaged in real problem-solving in the negotiation, three or four years are too long," he said on the MILF website. Only the negotiated political solution to the “Moro Question" [struggle for self-determination] in the form of a comprehensive compact is left for discussion, Mantawil added. The MILF said it already bared its position on the matter when it presented its draft proposal last January 27. “Practically, the government knows the position of the MILF, which can change if the government continues to dilly dally in the talks," Mantawil said. If the talks last for more than one year, he said, chances are the Aquino administration is not serious and is only engaged in managing the conflict in Mindanao. Mantawil also said likely signs of such a scenario include:

• Questioning some or all of the agreements signed so far by the parties;
• Attempting to make drastic changes in the existing mechanisms or established protocols of the peace process and the ceasefire such as terms of reference for facilitator and terms of reference for facilitation;
• Discouraging if not restricting the participation of the international community including non-state actors in the talks;
• Having the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process (OPAPP) maximize local peace processes to domesticate it, instead of the one with third party facilitation, without saying so;
• Reducing the negotiation to something like a public hearing by resorting to over-excessive use of the so-called consultation, which, instead of creating favorable support to the peace process, leads to public outcry and outrage against the process itself;
• Creating or promoting stage-managed rifts within the government or among the three branches of government to delay the start of the negotiation;
• Mobilizing all opponents of the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain to put up a more organized regional or national movement;
• Unleashing a systematic counter-insurgency program including hearts and minds operations; and most likely the PAMANA development project of the OPAPP, which is being implemented even without the peace process moving, might fall into this category;
• Using so-called terrorists or kidnappers as alibis to launch military operations to create chaos and instability on the ground, to hamper the continuity of the peace talks; and
• Taking advantage of the ceasefire and the peace process and the lull created by it to undertake indiscriminate arrests of MILF officials and members and charge them with common crimes like murder, arson, and destruction of properties.

On the other hand, Mantawil said, if the Aquino administration is engaged in real-problem solving in the negotiation, it is likely to:

• Uphold the existing signed documents between the Parties since 1997;
• Make full use of the existing apparatuses of the peace process and the ceasefire without attempting to introduce drastic changes;
• Seek to increase the active participation of instead of curtailing the participation of the international community;
• Strike a balance between transparency through consultation and confidentiality, because real, hard, and successful negotiation especially sovereignty-based will not succeed if everybody is allowed to poke their noses on it;
• Have the military commit and come into the open in support of the peace process and will desist from making provocative movements or actions including arrests, hostile pronouncements; and
• Use its Constitution to facilitate the implementation of a peace pact with the MILF.

— LBG, GMANews.TV