DA lowers rice output forecast for 2011

Even as the Department of Agriculture (DA) affirmed the need to increase the country’s targeted rice output by 2013, a government official said Wednesday that the DA has lowered its projections for next year, due to the damage caused by recent typhoons. Agriculture Assistant Secretary Dennis Araullo told reporters that rice production for 2011 would only reach 17.4 million metric tons (MT), down by 2.79 percent from an earlier forecast of 17.9 million MT. However, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics maintains that rice output for this year will be in the vicinity of 16.2 million MT, down by 9.5 percent from the original target. “We have to be more practical in announcing projections. It will be difficult to bridge the gap between 16.2 million MT and 17.9 million MT," Araullo said. Meanwhile, the DA is projecting rice production of 19 million MT and 20.1 million MT by 2012 and 2013, respectively. As much as possible, the DA plans to do away with rice importation by 2013, Araullo said "These [projections] remain indicative. After that we have to present the new production targets to the economic managers," Araullo said. But Araullo added that that intervention measures the Agriculture Department implemented this year may only bear fruit in 2012, placing rice output for 2010 in a precarious situation. Based on government estimates, 2010 palay production may drop to 16.24 million MT from 16.27 million MT in 2009. Palay output in the first half of 2010 also dropped to 6.62 million MT from 7.37 million MT during the same period in 2009. Crop damage in the first six months of 2010 and unrealized plantings in the second and third quarters of the year — due to the El Niño weather phenomenon — will negatively affect palay production for the year, according to the DA. Last week, the DA revised its rice program, scrapping the subsidy for hybrid rice and certified seeds for 2010. This amounted to a P1.3 billion reallocation of the budget to other interventions such as irrigation and post-harvest facilities. Araullo said, however, that the national government is proposing to give some P4.3 billion to the palay program — nearly a third of the P15-billion fund required to reach rice sufficiency status. The DA added that first semester farm output fell 2.59 percent due to effects of the prolonged dry spell on crops, fisheries, and livestock. Output for the third quarter will remain negative due to the tail-end effects of El Niño, although various intervention measures are being implemented at the grassroots level to help the country recover, according to the DA. The cost of the damages to standing paddy rice due to typhoon Juan is estimated at P9 billion. — JE/LRS/VS, GMANews.TV