NSCB sees Q2 economic activity slowing down

Economic activity may slow down in the second quarter of 2011 after six straight quarters of economic upswing since the fourth quarter of 2009, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) said Thursday, citing its latest forecast. The NSCB used its composite leading economic indicator (LEI), a tool that measures economic activity, in forecasting how the economy may fare from April to June. The LEI dropped to 0.103 from 0.115. The composite LEI consists of 11 indicators of which only five contributed positively including total merchandise imports, wholesale price index, consumer price index, tourist arrivals, and stock price index, according to the NSCB. The six indicators that contributed negatively included the terms of trade index, number of new businesses, money supply, hotel occupancy rate, foreign exchange rate, and electric energy consumption. These negative indicators accounted for 52.9 percent of the LEI for the second quarter, while the combined positive factors dropped to 47.1 percent from 57.7 percent in the first quarter. —AY/PE/VS, GMA News