PHL’s large population said to be global growth driver

The Philippines will be one of the top countries driving global economic growth between now and 2050, and its ballooning population is a key reason why, according to a report by investments advice site BusinessInsider, citing recent data by reputed financial institution Citi. Population growth is one of the thornier issues in the current reproductive health bill debate, and the assessment seems to favor those opposed to limiting the growth rate, one of the highest in the world. But advocates for the other side have long argued that population growth cannot benefit a nation’s development if it outstrips the resources necessary to educate its work force and keep it healthy. Among 13 emerging markets, BusinessInsider ranked the Philippines fourth, behind Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mongolia. While BusinessInsider cautioned investors about the great risks of the Philippine market, including corruption and armed conflict, it said the nation’s expected population of 146.2 million in 2050, and the increase of its working-age population by 66.2 percent were assets that the rest of the world could not ignore. Some economists dispute that optimism, which they say history has proven otherwise. "[That] has been [exemplified] by the Philippines' very own historical experience and its [economic] performance compared to the dynamic Asian economies that used to lag the country only three to four decades ago," sais University of the Philippines (UP) School of Economics Professor Ernesto Pernia in an e-mail interview with GMA News Online. Pernia was referring to other Asian nations which have implemented strong national family planning policies to curb population growth—such as Thailand whose economy has leapfrogged the Philippines’ in recent decades. The country's population currently stands at about 94 million, with a growth rate of 2.05% in 2010, falling steadily but on a minimal pace. Camps opposed to the RH bill have stressed that high population is the country's greatest asset, and not its liability. In a position paper, some members of the UP community cited Nobel Prize winner Simon Kuznets' research, which argued that "a more rapid population growth, if properly managed, will promote economic development through a positive impact on the society's state of knowledge." Other development economists point out the “if properly managed" as the key condition in making populations productive and a true asset. Population Commission acting deputy executive director Rosalindo Marcelino, in a phone interview with GMA News Online, meanwhile acknowledged that population growth can contribute to economic development, "but only if your workforce is productive, skilled, educated and competitive." She said the availability of jobs for workers also plays a factor in a country's growth, so the country's high unemployment rate of 7.1% in end-2010 is detrimental to its progress. "If you do not have the capability to provide services and capacitate your population, your rising population numbers will not necessarily result in economic growth," she stressed. Other countries on the Citi list have other advantages such as rich natural resources, minimal civil conflicts, foreign direct investments and policy environments as main contributors to economic growth. Nigeria, for example, is seen to benefit economically from increased private sector investments, while Thailand's export-driven economy is a boon to the Southeast Asian country, the report said. The Philippines’ main export is millions of its skilled people, fleeing an economy that can’t offer enough jobs and can't provide wages high enough to compete in the world market. – HS, GMA News