PAGASA's second scenario: 'Chedeng' to hit Metro Manila

State weather forecasters warned Metro Manila residents Wednesday they may feel the wrath of tropical storm "Chedeng" (Songda), which it said had been moving westward for the last few hours. Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) officer-in-charge and Science Undersecretary Graciano Yumul Jr. said there is a "scenario" that Chedeng may hit Samar, then Bicol, and then Metro Manila.
"Kapag tumama sa Samar, base sa climatological record, ang susunod na tatamaan Bicol. At kung tumama sa Bicol, ang posibilidad na tatamaan ang Metro Manila ay naroon po. Yun ang second scenario para di mabigla ang ating kababayan na may ganoong posibilidad. Samar-Bicol-Metro Manila ang track line," Yumul said in an interview on Unang Balita. He said PAGASA is still gathering data and may be able to better assess by noon the chances of Chedeng hitting Metro Manila. Yumul said they considered the "second scenario" after noting the direction of the storm had changed from west-northwest to westward for the last "six to seven hours." Initially, he said the forecasts had indicated Metro Manila may feel the effects of Chedeng from Friday to Sunday but only through rains brought by the monsoon that the storm enhanced. "If it continues westward, there will be a greater chance of it hitting Samar instead of Cagayan-Isabela area," he said. Rainfall estimate In a separate interview on dwIZ radio Yumul said Chedeng may bring much rain, drawing from the South China Sea. "Kapag hinihigop ni Chedeng ang habagat, magsasanib ang dalawa at yan ang ibubuhos na ulan sa Metro Manila (There is the possibility of 'Chedeng' merging with the monsoon to dump rains on Metro Manila)," he said. For his part, Science Department Secretary Mario Montejo said the agency is keeping track of Chedeng. Even if it does not pass through Metro Manila, it will enhance the monsoon rains." Potential cyclone after 'Chedeng' PAGASA also said it is monitoring a low-pressure area that may potentially become the fourth cyclone to enter Philippine territory this year. Should the LPA become a cyclone and enter Philippine territory, it will be codenamed "Dodong." "Sa model na ginagamit namin may nakikita kaming papasok pag-alis ni Chedeng. Malayo pa po (ito); sa ngayon ay kaulapan pa lang yan," PAGASA forecaster Mario Palafox said in an interview on dzBB radio. — LBG, GMA News