DOST and PAGASA to map dengue outbreaks

Can dengue fever outbreaks be predicted? Science officials in the Philippines think so. With the country in the grips of dengue fever, the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) and the state weather bureau have launched a study that will enable health authorities to predict dengue outbreaks in the future. Collating data, finding correlations Science Undersecretary Graciano Yumul Jr. said there might be a correlation between changes in weather, temperature, rainfall, and the location of the dengue fever surges in the country. Yumul said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the government meteorological agency, is currently conducting a review of its past data on weather variations, rainfall amount, and temperature changes. These data will be cross-checked with information on dengue outbreaks and other infectious diseases that plagued the country in the past years. Climate change a factor? Yumul said the above-average rainfall that the country is experiencing due to climate change may increase the number of infectious diseases carried by mosquitoes and worms, creatures that thrive in damp climates and dirty environments. “We have a dengue project. We are looking at dengue and its possible correlation with temperature and precipitation," he said in a phone interview yesterday. With enough information on, “maybe it will be possible to forecast it," he added. Yumul said there was a Pagasa and Department of Health studies in the past that showed the relationship between tropical diseases and weather. The study is being updated and will include information on malaria, another fatal mosquito-borne infectious disease, and parasitic worm illnesses, which affect children and the urban poor population. According to Nino Relos, senior weather specialist at Pagasa, the new study aims “to determine if climate change has an impact on infectious diseases." “People always say that climate change has an impact but it is not described for sure, if it aggravates or reduces incidences," he said. Relos said the study takes into account data such as hospital admissions and population growth, noting that demographic factors may also play a role in the rise of recorded dengue cases. The study also uses weather variables in the past 30 years. Abundant rain and dengue incidence There have been studies abroad of the relationship between the abundance of rain and high incidence of dengue, a deadly infectious disease, in places like Thailand, Indonesia and Brazil. The Philippines has been grappling with dengue fever outbreaks for the past three years. According to data from the World Health Organization, there have been 38,876 cases and 226 deaths from dengue as of August 6. There were 52, 428 cases in 2010 for the same period. Metro Manila, Regions III, IV-A, and I have reported the greatest number of cases, the WHO said. Dengue-carrying mosquitoes thrive in damp and wet places. And with many parts of the Philippines getting above-average rainfall amount this year, scientists and health experts warn that this could increase the breeding ground of Aedes aegypti, the species of mosquito that carries the virus. Yumul also noted that the fluctuating temperatures could cause an imbalance in the ecosystem and kill off predators of mosquitoes, allowing them to thrive. Aside from man-made factors, changes in temperature are also affecting the population of mosquito predators like lizards, frogs, and spiders. “That could be another reason for the prevalence of dengue," he said. Fungus infections also noted The Protected Areas and Wildlife Bureau (PAWB) had revealed that it recorded cases of fungal infection from several species of frogs in the Philippines. The fungus coats the amphibian's skin, suffocating it to death. Scientists believe that varying temperatures trigger the spread of the chytrid fungus, which has affected about a third of the global frog population. Meanwhile, a public health expert warned of an outbreak in common worm diseases among children, saying the country's current weather conditions provide the perfect environment for the growth of worms and bacteria that cause these diseases. Dr. Vicente Belizario, an infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health at the University of the Philippines, said “millions and millions" of Filipino are affected by common worm and parasitic diseases such as schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, and helminthiasis. Lymphatic filariasis is a disfiguring disease that causes swelling in limbs and genitalia. Helminthias is caused by intestinal parasitic worms in soil and water and could lead to death, while schistosomiasis is caused by flatworms, which could reside inside blood vessels. In an interview recently, Belizario said these diseases are part of the neglected tropical diseases that usually increases during the rainy season. Unacceptable treatment rates The Philippines experiences for several months starting late May or June. This year, the weather bureau said the country should expect a heavy wet season until September. According to Belizario, the infection rate of common worm diseases in the Philippines is at 45%. “It affects millions and millions of children. The coverage rates are low and people are not getting treated," he said. The acceptable treatment rate is at 85%. But in the Philippines, the treatment rate is less than 50% in most of the regions, he said. Belizario said the present weather conditions are the perfect breeding environment for worms and bacteria that causes skin and gastrointestinal diseases among children. He noted that worm eggs are “sturdy" and that they thrive in tropical climates and damp and unsanitary communities. “They last for two years and are resistant to environment changes. When there is a flood, the eggs are carried to low-lying areas. They are easily transmitted by dust," he said. Schoolchildren are most vulnerable The ones who are vulnerable to common worm diseases are school-age children. According to Belizario, it has been found out that a large number of children in public and private schools are affected by worms and parasites. Although there have been major national deworming campaigns in the past, Belizario said it was not enough to cover at-risk schoolchildren. The problem, he noted, is that people dismiss the effects of these diseases. Many parents harbor misconceptions about deworming, believing that once is enough. Belizario said it should be done several times a year. Many local health centers also fail to provide this service to their constituents, he said. — TJD, GMA News