SWS survey on TU bets 'misleading' - Palace adviser

As political campaign hostilities resumed after a two-day Holy Week “break," Malacañang fired the first salvo Saturday, but not exactly at the political opposition. Instead, presidential political affairs adviser Gabriel Claudio vented his ire on Social Weather Stations (SWS) for what he called its “remarkably misleading" survey claiming voters favor opposition bets in local posts. “That survey is remarkably misleading and slanted. If SWS were really after an authentic forecast of elections for local and congressional positions, they should run a province-by-province survey, ask voters their choice among actual registered candidates, then count how many among these choices belong to the opposition, instead of asking voters if they prefer opposition or administration bets," Claudio said in a text message sent to Palace reporters. He added the SWS survey, which also indicated that only four to five Team Unity senatorial bets are likely to win, could be a ploy to condition the public mind. Such mind-conditioning through the survey, he said, is “false, irresponsible and provocative." “The SWS survey induces the public to believe that an erroneously significant number of local and congressional candidates of the opposition will win. This is false, irresponsible and provocative," he said. "When the administration does sweep the local polls because of its acknowledged dominance of local political conditions, the opposition will cry cheating, thanks to the skewed prognosis of SWS," he added. Besides, he said the survey conveniently glosses over the outright winnability of incumbents or their chosen successors. “Local candidates are voted not because they are administration or opposition ... Voters don’t know the difference or they couldn’t care less. Local candidates are chosen on the basis of their specific individual acceptability to their constituents," he added. SWS’ latest survey, released Wednesday night, claimed Team Unity candidates stand to get only four to five seats in the Senate. It also claimed a plurality of 36 percent would vote for opposition candidates, and only a 28 percent minority would vote for administration bets for local posts. The SWS had said it interviewed registered voters in its First Quarter 2007 Social Weather Survey from Feb. 24 to 27. But Claudio dared SWS to deny that administration candidates are in fact leading in many surveys it has done for specific congressional and local candidates. He claimed at least 52 incumbent governors, 115 incumbent congressmen and around 67 percent of incumbent city and municipal mayors are running for re-election under the administration. In areas where the administration is not fielding re-electionists, it has the strongest possible candidates from six political parties within the administration coalition, he said. “Surely SWS does not believe that administration candidates, a majority of whom are incumbents, will lose just because they are administration and not opposition," he said. Claudio added that in Metro Manila alone, six mayoralty candidates of the administration are running unopposed, and many more administration bets for governor, mayor and congressman in the provinces are unchallenged. The SWS survey had indicated that for congressman, 36 percent would vote for an opposition candidate, 28 pecent would vote for administration, and 26 percent for an independent candidate. For governor, 28 percent would vote for an opposition, 25 percent for administration, and 21 percent for an independent candidate. The remaining 25 percent consist of 12 percent with no answer and 13 percent not applicable cases from Metro Manila. For mayor, 35 percent would vote for an opposition candidate, an almost equal 33 percent would vote for administration, and 23 percent for an independent candidate, with 10 percent having no answer. For representative, opposition candidates dominate in Metro Manila, with 50 percent of potential votes, and in the rest of Luzon, with 39 percent. They scored 30 percent in Mindanao and 24 percent in the Visayas. Administration candidates for representative, on the other hand, lead in the Visayas, with 41 percent, and in Mindanao, with 34 percent. They get 24 percent in the rest of Luzon, and 13 percent in Metro Manila. Independent candidates for Representative get 26 percent in both Luzon outside NCR and the Visayas, and 24 percent in both Metro Manila and Mindanao. For governor, opposition candidates lead in Luzon outside NCR, with 40 percent of potential votes, while they get 27 percent in the Visayas and 23 percent in Mindanao. Administration candidates for governor lead in the Visayas, with 39 percent, and in Mindanao, with 33 percent. They get 23 percent of potential votes in Luzon outside NCR. Independent candidates for governor scored 26 percent in the Visayas, 25 percent in the balance of Luzon, and 22 percent in Mindanao. For mayor, opposition candidates lead in Metro Manila, with 46 percent of potential votes, and in the rest of Luzon, with 39 percent. They get 28 percent in Mindanao and 26 percent in the Visayas. Administration candidates for mayor dominate in the Visayas, with 42 percent, and in Mindanao, with 41 percent. They get 28 percent in Luzon outside NCR, and 19 percent in Metro Manila. Independent candidates for mayor get 25 percent of potential votes in Metro Manila, 24 percent in both the Visayas and the rest of Luzon, and 19 percent in Mindanao. The First Quarter 2007 SWS survey was conducted from February 24 to 27, using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2007 to obtain the national estimates. - GMANews.TV