Market analysts wary of Erap trial aftermath
09/11/2007 | 09:35 AM
The Sandiganbayan is set to release its decision on the trial of former president Joseph Estrada on Wednesday, and the market is waiting eagerly. However, analysts interviewed by GMANews.TV are not exactly excited to know whether or not the deposed president is found guilty, or declared innocent by the anti-graft court.
What the market is eager to see, is how events after the decision unfold.
“I don’t think the market expects anything, it is just hoping for the best. Either way, there will be market uncertainties. Everybody knows that if he is found guilty, there will be street protests. If he is acquitted, then there will be questions of legality of the present administration," Francis Liboro, PCCI Securities Inc. president said.
Players seem to think the market is caught between a rock and a hard place.
“What we’re really wary about is the backlash on the decision. If he is acquitted, it will (pose) too many questions and power-grabbers might take advantage. If he is convicted then his supporters will rally," Astro del Castillo, First Grade Holdings managing director added.
The Sandiganbayan Special Division is set to promulgate its decision Wednesday on the P4.1-billion plunder and perjury cases against Estrada.
Estrada was ousted through a popular revolt on Jan. 21, 2001 and was replaced in Malacañang by Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. He was arrested in April 25 that same year and has been under police custody ever since.
The former president himself has said that in the event that he is found guilty of the charges, he would immediately file a motion for reconsideration. But if the court declares him innocent, Estrada said he would first go to church and thank God and happily go back home on Polk Street in North Greenhills, San Juan.
The local stock market has been falling sharply during recent sessions, as it tracks the dips of bourses around the world which have been in the doldrums following news of a US credit crunch and pending economic slowdown.
The Philippine Stock Exchange composite index dipped 1.56 percent on Monday, only the latest in a recent series of sessions the local bourse has ended in negative territory.
The results of the Estrada trial only seek to add to the US-induced woes of the local market.
“The Erap trial (is) not the only reason why investors (remain) on the sidelines, but also because of the US stock market… The Erap verdict will aggravate whatever volatility the US market is bringing to the local bourse," April Tan, Citiseconline analyst said.
However, analysts said they have learned how to take political events like this in stride, and are positive that the market will resume its normal track after post-Estrada trial activities lose steam.
“We’re taking this with a grain of salt. Considering what we’ve seen before, the rallies should not be that too long. Maybe, a week at the most," Del Castillo said. - GMANews.TV
What the market is eager to see, is how events after the decision unfold.
“I don’t think the market expects anything, it is just hoping for the best. Either way, there will be market uncertainties. Everybody knows that if he is found guilty, there will be street protests. If he is acquitted, then there will be questions of legality of the present administration," Francis Liboro, PCCI Securities Inc. president said.
Players seem to think the market is caught between a rock and a hard place.
“What we’re really wary about is the backlash on the decision. If he is acquitted, it will (pose) too many questions and power-grabbers might take advantage. If he is convicted then his supporters will rally," Astro del Castillo, First Grade Holdings managing director added.
The Sandiganbayan Special Division is set to promulgate its decision Wednesday on the P4.1-billion plunder and perjury cases against Estrada.
Estrada was ousted through a popular revolt on Jan. 21, 2001 and was replaced in Malacañang by Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. He was arrested in April 25 that same year and has been under police custody ever since.
The former president himself has said that in the event that he is found guilty of the charges, he would immediately file a motion for reconsideration. But if the court declares him innocent, Estrada said he would first go to church and thank God and happily go back home on Polk Street in North Greenhills, San Juan.
The local stock market has been falling sharply during recent sessions, as it tracks the dips of bourses around the world which have been in the doldrums following news of a US credit crunch and pending economic slowdown.
The Philippine Stock Exchange composite index dipped 1.56 percent on Monday, only the latest in a recent series of sessions the local bourse has ended in negative territory.
The results of the Estrada trial only seek to add to the US-induced woes of the local market.
“The Erap trial (is) not the only reason why investors (remain) on the sidelines, but also because of the US stock market… The Erap verdict will aggravate whatever volatility the US market is bringing to the local bourse," April Tan, Citiseconline analyst said.
However, analysts said they have learned how to take political events like this in stride, and are positive that the market will resume its normal track after post-Estrada trial activities lose steam.
“We’re taking this with a grain of salt. Considering what we’ve seen before, the rallies should not be that too long. Maybe, a week at the most," Del Castillo said. - GMANews.TV
