Detente for 2010: Arroyo, Joe de V agree to keep ‘marriage’

The opposition may bid goodbye to their wishes of seeing President Arroyo impeached, Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. replaced, and the ruling Lakas-Kampi coalition broken over the controversial national broadband network contract that has pitted administration personalities against each other. In the face of what a presidential adviser calls "a mutually hurting stalemate," the camps of Ms. Arroyo and De Venecia have chosen to let the controversy “fizzle out" so the administration can still have the upper hand in the 2010 presidential elections. On Thursday, De Venecia inhibited himself from the process of referring to the proper House committee the impeachment complaint against President Arroyo, and allowed Deputy Speaker Raul del Mar do it. Earlier in the morning, the President had breakfast with more than 100 solons in Malacañang, including De Venecia, to subtly remind them of where their loyalties should lie. The Inquirer reported today that the solons received cash ranging from P200,000 to P500,000 after the meeting purportedly as “send-off gifts." More than to extricate himself from a conflict-of-interest situation, however, De Venecia’s move to doom the impeachment complaint was meant to repair his relationship with the President, according to party mates of De Venecia in the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats. But both camps are expected to keep each other on its toes for the remainder of Ms. Arroyo’s term, according to the Palace adviser and other administration insiders we interviewed. Attempts from the factions to unsettle the President or the Speaker will continue, but these will be calibrated and will only be intensified when any of them is seriously threatened. Most of the sources, who requested anonymity so as not to preempt the “people who are [still] mediating" between Arroyo and De Venecia, concede, though, that if the dominant majority party, the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats, is made to choose between the two leaders, it would side with De Venecia. “If push comes to shove, Lakas will side with JDV. GMA is just the [party’s] titular head; JDV organized it," the presidential adviser concedes. It is the Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino (Kampi), which is in coalition with Lakas, that’s expected to fully support Arroyo. Puno’s Game De Venecia formed Lakas-Tao, the precedent of Lakas-CMD, in 1992 after he bolted the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino to support the president bid of then former defense chief Fidel Ramos. De Venecia has been Speaker since that year and until now, except for a three-year break, from 1998 to 2001, after he lost in the presidential elections. In 1997, then senator Gloria Arroyo formed Kampi as the vehicle for her own presidential bid in 1998, originally against De Venecia. The latter was able to persuade Arroyo, however, to run as his vice president under Lakas. Arroyo then dissolved Kampi and went on to co-chair Lakas with De Venecia. In 2004, Ms. Arroyo’s husband revived Kampi, with President Arroyo also as chair. The party has since been fielding candidates against Lakas members in local races. In the past weeks, speculations were rife that a head-on collision between President Arroyo and De Venecia was inevitable. De Venecia’s son, Jose “Joey" de Venecia III, claimed in a Senate hearing that First Gentleman Mike Arroyo told him to “back off" in favor of the Chinese supplier, ZTE Corporation, for the project that will put online and network all government agencies. Joey likewise accused Benjamin Abalos of offering him a bribe to convince him to abandon his bid for the project, a claim that caused Abalos’s resignation as chair of the Commission on Elections. Immediately, a loyalty check was conducted among Lakas members, while Kampi members in the House where reported to be moving to replace De Venecia as speaker. Thursday last week, lawyer Rafael “Roel" Pulido filed corruption charges against De Venecia before the House ethics committee. The following day, Pulido filed a three-page impeachment complaint against President Arroyo, considered by the opposition as weak and “planted" by the administration. It’s turning out that a faction within Kampi, headed by party chair and presidential political affairs adviser Ronaldo Puno, is behind those two complaints. A Kampi source, who has worked with Puno on several special operations, says that the game plan is to protect the President from both the opposition and De Venecia, who may take advantage of the latest scandal to try to unseat the Ms. Arroyo. Pulido’s weak impeachment complaint against the President is meant to prevent any serious complaint from being filed. When the weak complaint is dismissed, the President is shielded from any other impeachment attempt in the next 12 months, based on the law. Sleepless JDV A former Lakas congressman loyal to the President says that if the committee on justice recognizes the filing of the Pulido complaint as the initiation of the impeachment process, then the one-year ban on subsequent complaints will take effect. “Then JDV will be sleepless for the next 12 months," he says. From there, the President’s camp can move to replace De Venecia as Speaker—if that’s her wish, adds the former solon. Under this scenario, “walang matitira sa kanya (Nobody will remain on De Venecia’s side)." In the event, however, that Pulido’s complaint is dismissed and a superior impeachment complaint by the opposition is accepted by the House, Puno’s Kampi bloc won’t let De Venecia use that to threaten the President. The ethics complaint hanging above him “will keep JDV in check," the source from Kampi says. Puno’s renewed fears of De Venecia turning against the President are warranted. In July, another Kampi faction fielded a challenger against De Venecia in the speakership race. Wanting to win the opposition’s votes, De Venecia was said to have offered this compromise: “Do you still want to impeach her?" implying that in exchange for their votes, he would allow their bid to impeach the President to prosper. So far, however, De Venecia has the numbers. The Kampi bloc in the House, which challenged De Venecia’s speakership bid, counts only around 50 followers. Lakas, for its part, has 95 members in the House. The opposition bloc of 30 is inclined to side with De Venecia on this issue. He is also said to be “mending his bridges," calling to meetings old allies who have distanced themselves from him because of his loyalty to Ms. Arroyo, says a Lakas stalwart. Meantime, says the former Lakas congressman, De Venecia and the President have apparently chosen to “put on a show" of not being bothered by the controversy that hurt her husband and his son. “Magpaplastikan na lang sila" until the controversy dies down. People close to De Venecia and the President say that the Ms. Arroyo can still handle what happened because it’s clear to her that De Venecia is not really after her political downfall but after the broadband contract. “We all know where the ZTE issue coming from—from a group that lost its hold on China deals," says a Palace insider. All Eyes on 2010 The former Lakas solon says that “the deeper endgame of JDV is a question mark, but [clearly] the immediate purpose is to have the deal with ZTE cancelled." The company of De Venecia’s son lost the contract for the national broadband network to the Chinese firm. A member of the Lakas national directorate agrees that the rift between the two party leaders stemmed from the “anomalous" ZTE deal and nothing else, although it’s the President he’s blaming for it. But the party official says that the sentiment within Lakas is to keep the coalition with Kampi intact, at least on the surface, because they do not want any other camp to take advantage of the crisis to oust President Arroyo. He says Lakas members are aware that if other people try to “drive a wedge within my party…wala kaming maipapalit (there’s no alternative to President Arroyo). Just let [the] 2010 [elections] take its course." A ranking official of the League of Cities of the Philippines, who is a Lakas member, believes that “the alliance between PGMA and JDV is strong enough to withstand this temporary setback." One of the earliest to call party officials weeks ago when the President and De Venecia appeared headed for a clash over the ZTE issue, the city mayor says that with its sight on the 2010 presidential elections, Lakas “will stand to gain from the present alliances," and will therefore not to break them. Right now, says the presidential adviser, “both camps know that there’s so much to lose" in terms of power base if they break up the alliance, “so they won’t take the risk." De Venecia was threatened by Kampi more than once, reportedly on the behest of First Gentleman Mike Arroyo. Aside from fielding candidates against Lakas incumbents in the past two elections, Kampi was said to have secretly supported Dagupan Mayor Benjie Lim when he ran for congressman against De Venecia this year. When De Venecia made his bid for a fifth term as Speaker, Kampi put up Cebu Rep. Pablo Garcia against him. In all these, however, De Venecia handled his cards well. “Even assuming that these [attacks] came from FG, they were not as neatly divisive as to cause the breakup of the coalition," the President’s adviser says. And De Venecia, he says, is “smart enough" to move “only…if truly threatened." Lakas members are aware that it’s Mr. Arroyo who has caused problems between Kampi and Lakas. They acknowledge that the two parties chaired by President Arroyo have always had friction. They try to hold the coalition together, however, for their own survival—to remain as the ruling party. “It’s the politics of hypocrisy," says one of them. - Newsbreak