Rice shortage: A look into a threat to world survival

MANILA, Philippines – The issue on the availability of rice is part of a global problem faced by many countries – both exporters and importers of the grain that feeds three billion of the 6.6 billion world population. Countries such as China, India, and Vietnam, which used to freely supply rice to the world market, have decided to keep most of their harvest. Analysts fear that these countries would eventually adopt a “starve-your-neighbor" policy to feed their population. There is a tight supply of rice in the world market. The trade restrictions imposed by the world's major rice producers have hurt countries like the Philippines that heavily depend on importation to address food security. The issue is what caused these restrictions, when did the problem start and why it continues to this day. Some blame it on the weather – the global warming that dries up farmlands – the continued rise in the prices of petroleum products, which triggers hoarding and worsens inflation. Others say it’s the growing number of people in rice-eating countries, especially in Asia, that pulled the demand for the staple. In varying degrees, all of these have contributed to the supply shortage of the grain that feeds almost half of the world's population. World Bank president Robert Zoellick said that as early as 2005 warning bells were already ringing. He said prices of staples had risen by 80 percent since 2005, a year marked by events that could explain the rise in the price of staples. In the United States, President George W. Bush signed into law the Energy Policy Act to address problems caused by the rising price of petroleum products. In 2005, crude oil started to shoot up to $60 from $25 per barrel in the 1980s. The price further soared to $99 in December 2007, and again to an all-time peak of $103.05 in the beginning of 2008. It was also in 2005 when farmers around the world started to consider planting crops for biofuels, instead of for food. The sharpest rise in the prices of Thai rice also happened in 2005, doubling the staple's price to $760 per metric ton. World leaders and scientists later cautioned against the impact of the rush for biofuels on food security. Regan Suzuki of the FAO's Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific warned that the rush for biofuels could compete with the production of staple crops. John Beddington, a British scientist and professor of applied population biology, doubted that the world could grow enough crops for renewable energy and meet the growing demand for food at the same time. “Don't we need to do something about food? Demand has grown enormously, particularly in China and India, where much of the driving force is increased demand. By 2030, energy demand is going to be up by 50 percent and demand for food is going to be up by 50 percent," he said. Too late In the Philippines, news about the tight supply of rice came to the attention of the government and the media only in the first week of March when Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap, ironically announced that the country was not facing a food crisis. Yap was reacting to reports of surging prices of rice in the world market. It was a late reaction considering that during the last quarter of 2007, while Malacañang was busy shielding President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo from allegations of corruption in the botched $329.48-million National Broadband Network project, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), issued a statement saying the staple’s price had increased by as much as 36 percent compared to 2006. Yap assured that the Philippines would achieve its 2008 production target of 92 percent of national self-sufficiency level. "Huwag tayong mag-alala (We shouldn't worry) because we are not facing any food shortage," said Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita on March 12. Two days later, Senate President Manuel Villar said the Senate would look into the looming food crisis amid the rising prices of rice and other basic commodities. On the third week of March, the nongovernment Rice Watch and Action Network hit Malacañang for “harping on increased agricultural output despite the extended dry spell, and the volatile fluctuations in the international market." President Arroyo later admitted that there was an impending threat in the supply of rice. She said the prices of rice would slightly go up, but she assured the public that there would be no shortage of the staple. Events in the last week of March and the first week of April proved that the problem was more serious than what the government wanted the people to believe. Inflation soared to 6.4 percent as prices of food and oil went up. The government ordered a crackdown against rice hoarders and the revocation of all licenses of rice traders who buy the staple from the National Food Authority (NFA). Prices of rice went up to as much as P30 to P50 pesos per kilogram. The cheaper rice sold by the NFA was limited to a daily purchase ceiling of no more than three kilograms per consumer. Rice crisis? There is no agreement whether the country is facing a rice crisis or not. NFA spokesman Rex Estoperez said the country is neither facing a crisis nor a shortage in rice supply. “Pag sinabi nating crisis, wala kang mabibili. Ang shortage is more about tight supply, kumbaga ay hindi naman wala ka talagang mabibili, may mabibili, pero kaunti. So I'm saying that we don't have a crisis now, and we don't have a shortage either (If we say there’s a crisis, you can’t buy anything. Shortage is more about tight supply, it’s not that you can’t buy anything, you can, but it’s limited)," he said. Speculation created an artificial increase in rice prices, Estoperez said. Jessica Cantos of the Rice Watch and Action Network, however, said the crisis is created by unscrupulous traders “who control the market." “We could liberalize importation, and lower the tariff to address the shortage. But prices would still be manipulated by unscrupulous traders, thus poor, and hungry Filipinos will remain at a losing end," she said. Addressing food security through self sufficiency could only be possible if farming proved to be a viable livelihood for farmers, Cantos said, adding that irrigation of farmlands must be improved, and farming technologies that are not dependent on imported chemical inputs must be developed. Leftist activists, meanwhile, said the country has been "in a state of chronic crisis" since it started relying on importation to ensure food security. “What is happening right now tells us that with the world's growing population, and the shrinking resources, the country can't forever rely on the global supply of staples," said Sonny Africa of the independent think-tank Ibon Foundation. He said solutions to the food problem “should have been implemented a long, long time ago." These include a stop to conversion of agricultural lands into biofuel farms and commercial establishments, sufficient support services for poor farmers, reversing government policy on rice liberalization, and dismantling rice cartels. - GMANews.TV