SWS: Villar trims Aquino lead in one-on-one scenario

Even in a one-on-one scenario where only the two of them were the choices in a presidential race, Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy" Aquino kept his edge over Sen. Manuel “Manny" Villar Jr. although by only 8 points, according to the latest Social Weather Stations survey conducted from Dec. 27 to 28 last year. SWS's late December poll results were made public earlier this month, but the poll organization said "it is disclosing the pertinent results and technical details, for the benefit of the public," in a release sent to media Thursday evening. The survey showed that in a scenario where the electorate's choice was only between Aquino and Villar, 52 percent of respondents would choose Aquino over Villar, who received 44 percent. (See Table 1.) Table 1. SWS Special Survey, Dec. 27-28, 2009 The special survey, commissioned by San Juan Rep. Ronaldo Zamora, a known Villar ally, asked the question, “Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon?" (Among the names found on this list, who will you probably vote for as PRESIDENT of the Philippines, if elections were held now?). The same survey scenario, which included only Aquino and Villar as the two presidential choices, was also tested in the October 1-4 SWS survey last year. Commissioned by Avic Amarillo, Villar’s media relations officer, this earlier survey showed two-thirds (65 percent) of the respondents were for Aquino while only less than one-third (28 percent) were for Villar. This indicates a 29-percent decrease in the gap between Liberal Party’s Aquino and Nacionalista Party’s Villar when the two similar surveys conducted in October 2009 and December 2009 are compared. Aquino tops 4 other scenarios Four other scenarios, each of which does not include all the eight candidates, were also tested in the December 2009 survey, the SWS said in its January 21 media release. The survey results show that Aquino topped in all of the other scenarios, but only with a 10-point edge over Villar, except for the scenario where former President Joseph Estrada was excluded. Where Estrada was not listed, Aquino enjoyed an 11-point lead over his closest rival. From a list showing only seven candidates without former President Joseph Estrada, 49 percent chose Aquino, while 38 percent were for Villar. Administration party candidate Gilberto “Gibo" Teodoro clinched 6 percent, evangelist Bro. Eddie Villanueva got 2 percent, while Sen. Richard “Dick" Gordon and Sen. Maria Ana Consuelo “Jamby" Madrigal received 1 percent each. Olongapo City councilor John Carlos “JC" de los Reyes trailed at 0.3 percent. (See Table 2.) Table 2. SWS Special Survey, Dec. 27-28, 2009 From a list of presidential candidates that excludes Teodoro, Aquino received 45 percent, a 10-point lead from Villar who got 35 percent. Estrada received 14 percent; Gordon and Villanueva at 2 percent each; Madrigal, 1 percent; and de los Reyes at 0.4 percent. (See Table 3.) Table 3. SWS Special Survey, Dec. 27-28, 2009 For a scenario of a presidential race between Aquino, Villar and Teodoro only, 50 percent chose Aquino; 40 percent, Villar; and 7 percent were for Teodoro. (See Table 4.) Table 4. SWS Special Survey, Dec. 27-28, 2009 Similarly, in a list that included only Aquino, Villar and Estrada, Aquino still topped the pack at 47 percent, Villar at 37 percent and Estrada at 14 percent. Table 5. SWS Special Survey, Dec. 27-28, 2009 The survey used face-to-face interviews with 2,100 respondents, with an error margin of ±2.2 percent, according to SWS. The October 1-4, 2009 survey meanwhile involved only 1,200 adults, with an error margin of ±3 percent. Consistent topnotch, but edge is narrowing Aquino has consistently topped poll surveys conducted by several institutions in the past months, but survey results point to the trend that Villar is inching his way up and narrowing Aquino’s edge, despite the NP bet's being embroiled in recent Senate in-fighting over the controversial C5 road project. The latest SWS survey, conducted on December 27-28, showed that in a generalized scenario where all presidential bets are listed, 46% of the respondents chose Aquino, while Roxas got 33%. [See: Villar inches close to Noynoy in latest SWS survey] Villar’s rating in the late December survey is six percent higher than his rating in a survey conducted by the same outfit on December 5 to 10. Aquino’s rating, however, slipped from 44 percent. [See: Noynoy tops another survey, 46% will vote for him] While the ratings of both contenders remain virtually unchanged in various surveys, pollsters admit that Villar and even Estrada are gaining “significant" increases. [See: Noynoy still on top; Erap, Villar catching up – survey] Another survey showed Aquino to be preferred by 31 percent of the respondents, but Villar was similarly not far behind at 24 percent. [See: Noynoy leads, Villar not far behind in new survey] Political analyst Ramon Casiple earlier said that unless Aquino does something damaging to his political career, he is sure to win the 2010 presidential polls in light of his consistent lead over his opponents. [See: Consistent wide lead already a sign of victory - analyst] – Jerrie M. Abella/JV, GMANews.TV