Villar statistically tied with Noynoy in new SWS survey

(Updated 3:25 p.m.) Senators Benigno Simeon "Noynoy" Aquino III and Manuel Villar Jr. continued to engage in a neck and neck race for the country’s top post, and were statistically tied two months before the May 10 elections, the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed. The SWS poll, commissioned by BusinessWorld, showed that while Aquino remained the top pick among presidential aspirants, Villar appeared to be catching up. It noted that while both Aquino and Villar had lost ground, the cost was "more substantial" for Aquino, whose overall score slid by six points to 36 percent. Villar’s ratings dropped by a percentage point to 34 percent, the survey added. "The gap between the two falls within the ±2.2-percent margin of error used in the Feb. 24-28 survey, which used face-to-face interviews of 2,100 registered voters nationwide," according to a BusinessWorld report on Tuesday. It was the first SWS-BW poll conducted since the start of the national campaign period on February 9. The survey used a new system, where instead of the respondent responding orally, they were provided “ballots" they had to mark in private and then deposit in a container. All lists on the ballot were in alphabetical order and included nicknames as will be practiced by the Commission on Elections on election day. “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinaka-malamang ninyong iboboto bilang Presidente, Bise-Presidente, at mga Senador ng Pilipinas? Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naa-angkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pinaka-malamang ninyong iboboto (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as President, Vice-President, and Senators of the Philippines? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for)," the question went. In addition to those who declined to vote, did not choose or pick more than one presidential candidate, the 4 percent in the "undecided" category included a small proportion — 1.6 percent — of ballots where the marks could not be read by an optical scanning machine. “Assignment of the improperly marked ballots to the voters’ apparent choices would raise the national lead of Aquino over Villar by only 0.1 percent," the SWS said. The results were in contrast to a February 21-25 Pulse Asia survey released last Friday showing Aquino pulling away from Villar. The Pulse Asia tally showed 36 percent for Aquino against 29 percent for Villar. BusinessWorld quoted the SWS as saying that Aquino’s six-point fall had come on account of drops in all four geographical study areas — seven points in Balance Luzon (Luzon minus Metro Manila), six in Mindanao, five in the Visayas and three in Metro Manila. Villar lost 6 percentage points in Metro Manila, two in Balance Luzon and one in Mindanao, but picked up five in the Visayas to trim his overall slide to just a point. By area, the SWS said Aquino remained ahead in Metro Manila, the Visayas and Mindanao, while Villar was in front in Balance Luzon. Gainers On the other hand, Aquino and Villar’s lost votes appeared to have gone to former President Joseph Estrada, the third-ranked bet, and fourth-ranked former Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. Estrada picked up two points to score 15 percent, and Teodoro gained two points to 6 percent. The SWS also said support for Estrada was up by 6 points in Metro Manila, 3 in Mindanao, and 1 in the rest of Luzon. Estrada lost 2 points in the Visayas. Teodoro saw his support up by 3 points each in Balance Luzon and Mindanao, and by 1 in the Visayas, while dropping by only 1 point in Metro Manila. Vote percentages for the rest of the presidential bets did not change significantly, the SWS said, from the previous poll done in January 21-24. Evangelist Eddie Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas gained a point to 3 percent to stay in fifth place, followed by Bagumbayan’s Senator Richard Gordon, whose share stayed at 2 percent. Kilusang Bagong Lipunan candidate Vetellano Acosta, disqualified by the Commission on Elections last week for failing to run a proper campaign, saw a minuscule uptick to 0.4 percent. The same 0.1 percentage point gain to 0.2 percent was enjoyed by independent candidate Nicanor Perlas. Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC" G. de Los Reyes slipped by the same margin to 0.1 percent, while independent candidate Senator Ana Consuelo Madrigal saw her 0.4 percent score in January cut to just 0.1 percent. For area scores, the margins of error used were ±6 percent for Metro Manila and ±4 percent for the Balance of Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao. Class ABC By class, meanwhile, Aquino was said have been ahead among the masa or class D, albeit at a lower 38 percent from 45 percent previously, while Villar was the top pick for classes ABC — a lower 33 percent from 40 percent — and E, where he was two points down to 34 percent. “The key change from the January 21-24 survey in class ABC was that both Villar and Aquino lost seven points, while Estrada gained four points and Teodoro gained two points," the SWS said. Villar did not widen a three-point ABC gap with Aquino but his lead over Estrada was cut to 19 points from 30. Among the masses, Aquino lost 7 points, while Villar was steady: The gap thus narrowed to 4 points. Estrada picked up a point to Teodoro’s 2. In Class E, Aquino lost 6 points, while Villar lost 2. Teodoro gained 3 and Estrada added 2. The class E lead thus shifted to Villar, the SWS said. Villar, Noynoy camps pleased with result Expressing satisfaction on the recent SWS survey, Villar, who was on a campaign trail in Davao on Tuesday, vowed to visit more areas and exert more effort to improve his ratings further. "Ako ay natutuwa sa survey, malayo din naman ang pinanggalingan namin. Nangangahulugan na dapat lalong magtrabaho. Naniniwala kami na sa darating na panahon mauunawaan pa ng mga kababayan natin ang aming kakayahan at layunin," Villar said in a press conference before he went to "Sukatan 2010" the presidential forum organized by religious group Kingdom of Jesus Christ led by Pastor Apollo Quiboloy. He said there is no need to change his staff or the party’s campaign strategy to further improve his ratings. "Kailangan lang mag-finetune. Walang dahilan para magpalit ng strategy o tao dahil yung mga kasama natin ay kasama na noon pa," Villar said. Asked what he would fine-tune in his campaign approach, the senator said they would prioritize the areas where they need to meet people most. "Itong ginagawa ay tama at tuluy-tuloy lang. Mag-a-adjust lang ng kaunti para bumilis ang pagtaas. Itong survey ay nagbibigay ng information kung paano mas gaganda ang performance," Villar said. On the other hand, Aquino's camp said: "Despite our closest rival’s excessive, beyond-the-Comelec-limit spending on TV ads and the obscenely funded propaganda machine, the people have maintained their trust in Noynoy Aquino’s candidacy." "The opposing camp has practically thrown everything against Noynoy Aquino but his supporters remain undaunted—what can Villar do next?" a statement by Florencio "Butch" Abad, LP campaign manager said. "Although the race has become tighter, we are confident that our message of change and freedom from corruption will hold sway in the end, and that the voters will make the right decision come the May elections," he added. — with a report from Amita Legaspi/LBG/NPA/RSJ, GMANews.TV